Daily Papers

Cooperative autonomous robotic systems have significant potential for executing complex multi-task missions across space, air, ground, and maritime domains. But they commonly operate in remote, dynamic and hazardous environments, requiring rapid in-mission adaptation without reliance on fragile or slow communication links to centralised compute. Fast, on-board replanning algorithms are therefore needed to enhance resilience. Reinforcement Learning shows strong promise for efficiently solving mission planning tasks when formulated as Travelling Salesperson Problems (TSPs), but existing methods: 1) are unsuitable for replanning, where agents do not start at a single location; 2) do not allow cooperation between agents; 3) are unable to model tasks with variable durations; or 4) lack practical considerations for on-board deployment. Here we define the Cooperative Mission Replanning Problem as a novel variant of multiple TSP with adaptations to overcome these issues, and develop a new encoder/decoder-based model using Graph Attention Networks and Attention Models to solve it effectively and efficiently. Using a simple example of cooperative drones, we show our replanner consistently (90% of the time) maintains performance within 10% of the state-of-the-art LKH3 heuristic solver, whilst running 85-370 times faster on a Raspberry Pi. This work paves the way for increased resilience in autonomous multi-agent systems.

The rise of time-series pre-trained models has advanced temporal representation learning, but current state-of-the-art models are often large-scale, requiring substantial compute. We introduce TSPulse, ultra-compact time-series pre-trained models with only 1M parameters, specialized to perform strongly across classification, anomaly detection, imputation, and retrieval tasks. TSPulse introduces innovations at both the architecture and task levels. At the architecture level, it employs a dual-space masked reconstruction, learning from both time and frequency domains to capture complementary signals. This is further enhanced by a dual-embedding disentanglement, generating both detailed embeddings for fine-grained analysis and high-level semantic embeddings for broader task understanding. Notably, TSPulse's semantic embeddings are robust to shifts in time, magnitude, and noise, which is important for robust retrieval. At the task level, TSPulse incorporates TSLens, a fine-tuning component enabling task-specific feature attention. It also introduces a multi-head triangulation technique that correlates deviations from multiple prediction heads, enhancing anomaly detection by fusing complementary model outputs. Additionally, a hybrid mask pretraining is proposed to improves zero-shot imputation by reducing pre-training bias. These architecture and task innovations collectively contribute to TSPulse's significant performance gains: 5-16% on the UEA classification benchmarks, +20% on the TSB-AD anomaly detection leaderboard, +50% in zero-shot imputation, and +25% in time-series retrieval. Remarkably, these results are achieved with just 1M parameters, making TSPulse 10-100X smaller than existing pre-trained models. Its efficiency enables GPU-free inference and rapid pre-training, setting a new standard for efficient time-series pre-trained models. Models will be open-sourced soon.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in vision-language tasks, yet they still face challenges when processing long-duration video inputs. The limitation arises from MLLMs' context limit and training costs, necessitating sparse frame sampling before feeding videos into MLLMs. Existing video MLLMs adopt training-free uniform sampling or keyframe search, which may miss critical events or be constrained by the pre-trained models' event understanding capabilities. Meanwhile, building a training-based method remains challenging due to the unsupervised and non-differentiable nature of sparse frame sampling. To address these problems, we propose Temporal Sampling Policy Optimization (TSPO), advancing MLLMs' long-form video-language understanding via reinforcement learning. Specifically, we first propose a trainable event-aware temporal agent, which captures event-query correlation for performing probabilistic keyframe selection. Then, we propose the TSPO reinforcement learning paradigm, which models keyframe selection and language generation as a joint decision-making process, enabling end-to-end group relative optimization with efficient rule-based rewards. Furthermore, for the TSPO's training, we propose a long video training data construction pipeline with comprehensive temporal data and video Needle-in-a-Haystack data. Finally, we incorporate rule-based answering accuracy and temporal locating reward mechanisms to optimize the temporal sampling policy. Comprehensive experiments show that our TSPO achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple long video understanding benchmarks, and shows transferable ability across different cutting-edge Video-MLLMs.

In neural combinatorial optimization (CO), reinforcement learning (RL) can turn a deep neural net into a fast, powerful heuristic solver of NP-hard problems. This approach has a great potential in practical applications because it allows near-optimal solutions to be found without expert guides armed with substantial domain knowledge. We introduce Policy Optimization with Multiple Optima (POMO), an end-to-end approach for building such a heuristic solver. POMO is applicable to a wide range of CO problems. It is designed to exploit the symmetries in the representation of a CO solution. POMO uses a modified REINFORCE algorithm that forces diverse rollouts towards all optimal solutions. Empirically, the low-variance baseline of POMO makes RL training fast and stable, and it is more resistant to local minima compared to previous approaches. We also introduce a new augmentation-based inference method, which accompanies POMO nicely. We demonstrate the effectiveness of POMO by solving three popular NP-hard problems, namely, traveling salesman (TSP), capacitated vehicle routing (CVRP), and 0-1 knapsack (KP). For all three, our solver based on POMO shows a significant improvement in performance over all recent learned heuristics. In particular, we achieve the optimality gap of 0.14% with TSP100 while reducing inference time by more than an order of magnitude.

We propose and evaluate a number of solutions to the problem of calculating the cost to serve each location in a single-vehicle transport setting. Such cost to serve analysis has application both strategically and operationally in transportation. The problem is formally given by the traveling salesperson game (TSG), a cooperative total utility game in which agents correspond to locations in a traveling salesperson problem (TSP). The cost to serve a location is an allocated portion of the cost of an optimal tour. The Shapley value is one of the most important normative division schemes in cooperative games, giving a principled and fair allocation both for the TSG and more generally. We consider a number of direct and sampling-based procedures for calculating the Shapley value, and present the first proof that approximating the Shapley value of the TSG within a constant factor is NP-hard. Treating the Shapley value as an ideal baseline allocation, we then develop six proxies for that value which are relatively easy to compute. We perform an experimental evaluation using Synthetic Euclidean games as well as games derived from real-world tours calculated for fast-moving consumer goods scenarios. Our experiments show that several computationally tractable allocation techniques correspond to good proxies for the Shapley value.

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic k-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

Learning heuristics for vehicle routing problems (VRPs) has gained much attention due to the less reliance on hand-crafted rules. However, existing methods are typically trained and tested on the same task with a fixed size and distribution (of nodes), and hence suffer from limited generalization performance. This paper studies a challenging yet realistic setting, which considers generalization across both size and distribution in VRPs. We propose a generic meta-learning framework, which enables effective training of an initialized model with the capability of fast adaptation to new tasks during inference. We further develop a simple yet efficient approximation method to reduce the training overhead. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and benchmark instances of the traveling salesman problem (TSP) and capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The code is available at: https://github.com/RoyalSkye/Omni-VRP.

The recently presented idea to learn heuristics for combinatorial optimization problems is promising as it can save costly development. However, to push this idea towards practical implementation, we need better models and better ways of training. We contribute in both directions: we propose a model based on attention layers with benefits over the Pointer Network and we show how to train this model using REINFORCE with a simple baseline based on a deterministic greedy rollout, which we find is more efficient than using a value function. We significantly improve over recent learned heuristics for the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), getting close to optimal results for problems up to 100 nodes. With the same hyperparameters, we learn strong heuristics for two variants of the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), the Orienteering Problem (OP) and (a stochastic variant of) the Prize Collecting TSP (PCTSP), outperforming a wide range of baselines and getting results close to highly optimized and specialized algorithms.

The core of Transferable Utility (T.U.) games is a well-known solution concept from cooperative game theory yielding a cost allocation among n agents (called players) forming a coalition that is stable (i.e. no subset of players has an interest to deviate). In this paper, inspired by a practical application in the context of a decision support system for collaborative transportation in a Short Food Supply Chain (SFSC), we mainly focus on Traveling Salesman Games (TSGs), where the objective is to allocate the cost of a Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) with n locations and 1 depot to n players, each linked to exactly one of the locations. Given the computational complexity of computing an element of the core and the cost of a TSP, we study semicore allocations: a relaxation of the core that only requires that the subsets of size n -1 and of size 1 do not wish to deviate from the coalition. In the literature, instances of TSGs with empty cores and semicores are found. Hence, this paper first surveys the methods to approximate stability whenever the core is empty, such as the cost of stability (computing the minimum amount of money to subsidize the coalition with to attain stability) and the ε-core (which is a set of allocations that allow subsets of players to exceed their actual cost, but at most of a value of ε). We prove that these two solution

We propose UTSP, an unsupervised learning (UL) framework for solving the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). We train a Graph Neural Network (GNN) using a surrogate loss. The GNN outputs a heat map representing the probability for each edge to be part of the optimal path. We then apply local search to generate our final prediction based on the heat map. Our loss function consists of two parts: one pushes the model to find the shortest path and the other serves as a surrogate for the constraint that the route should form a Hamiltonian Cycle. Experimental results show that UTSP outperforms the existing data-driven TSP heuristics. Our approach is parameter efficient as well as data efficient: the model takes sim 10\% of the number of parameters and sim 0.2\% of training samples compared with reinforcement learning or supervised learning methods.

VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) is an NP hard problem, and it has attracted a lot of research interest. In contexts where vehicles have limited carrying capacity, such as volume and weight but needed to deliver items at various locations. Initially before creating a route, each vehicle needs a group of delivery points that are not exceeding their maximum capacity. Drivers tend to deliver only to certain areas. Cluster-based is one of the approaches to give a basis for generating tighter routes. In this paper we propose new algorithms for producing such clusters/groups that do not exceed vehicles maximum capacity. Our basic assumptions are each vehicle originates from a depot, delivers the items to the customers and returns to the depot, also the vehicles are homogeneous. This methods are able to compact sub-areas in each cluster. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of our new procedures, which are able to assist users to plan service territories and vehicle routes more efficiently.

We consider the problem of fairly allocating a sequence of indivisible items that arrive online in an arbitrary order to a group of n agents with additive normalized valuation functions. We consider both the allocation of goods and chores and propose algorithms for approximating maximin share (MMS) allocations. When agents have identical valuation functions the problem coincides with the semi-online machine covering problem (when items are goods) and load balancing problem (when items are chores), for both of which optimal competitive ratios have been achieved. In this paper, we consider the case when agents have general additive valuation functions. For the allocation of goods, we show that no competitive algorithm exists even when there are only three agents and propose an optimal 0.5-competitive algorithm for the case of two agents. For the allocation of chores, we propose a (2-1/n)-competitive algorithm for n>=3 agents and a square root of 2 (approximately 1.414)-competitive algorithm for two agents. Additionally, we show that no algorithm can do better than 15/11 (approximately 1.364)-competitive for two agents.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for cross-task generalization consists in pre-training adapters on a multi-task training set before few-shot adaptation to test tasks. Polytropon [Ponti et al., 2023] (Poly) jointly learns an inventory of adapters and a routing function that selects a (variable-size) subset of adapters for each task during both pre-training and few-shot adaptation. In this paper, we investigate the role that adapter routing plays in its success and design new variants based on our findings. First, we build on the intuition that finer-grained routing provides more expressivity. Hence, we propose MHR (Multi-Head Routing), which combines subsets of adapter parameters and outperforms Poly under a comparable parameter budget; by only fine-tuning the routing function and not the adapters (MHR-z), we achieve competitive performance with extreme parameter efficiency. Second, we find that Poly/MHR performance is a result of better multi-task optimization, rather than modular inductive biases that facilitate adapter recombination and local adaptation, as previously hypothesized. In fact, we find that MHR exhibits higher gradient alignment between tasks than any other method. Since this implies that routing is only crucial during multi-task pre-training, we propose MHR-mu, which discards routing and fine-tunes the average of the pre-trained adapters during few-shot adaptation. This establishes MHR-mu as an effective method for single-adapter fine-tuning.

We formulate and solve the H-SARA Problem, a Vehicle Routing and Appointment Scheduling Problem motivated by home services management. We assume that travel times, service durations, and customer cancellations are stochastic. We use a two-stage process that first generates teams and routes using a VRP Solver with optional extensions and then uses an MC Scheduler that determines expected arrival times by teams at customers. We further introduce two different models of cancellation and their associated impacts on routing and scheduling. Finally, we introduce the Route Fracture Metaheuristic that iteratively improves an H-SARA solution by replacing the worst-performing teams. We present insights into the problem and a series of numerical experiments that illustrate properties of the optimal routing, scheduling, and the impact of the Route Fracture Metaheuristic for both models of cancellation.

Any optimization algorithm programming interface can be seen as a black-box function with additional free parameters. In this spirit, simulated annealing (SA) can be implemented in pseudo-code within the dimensions of a single slide with free parameters relating to the annealing schedule. Such an implementation, however, necessarily neglects much of the structure necessary to take advantage of advances in computing resources and algorithmic breakthroughs. Simulated annealing is often introduced in myriad disciplines, from discrete examples like the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) to molecular cluster potential energy exploration or even explorations of a protein's configurational space. Theoretical guarantees also demand a stricter structure in terms of statistical quantities, which cannot simply be left to the user. We will introduce several standard paradigms and demonstrate how these can be "lifted" into a unified framework using object-oriented programming in Python. We demonstrate how clean, interoperable, reproducible programming libraries can be used to access and rapidly iterate on variants of Simulated Annealing in a manner which can be extended to serve as a best practices blueprint or design pattern for a data-driven optimization library.

Multi-task Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs) aim to minimize routing costs while satisfying diverse constraints. Existing solvers typically adopt a unified reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn generalizable patterns across tasks. However, they often overlook the constraint and node dynamics during the decision process, making the model fail to accurately react to the current context. To address this limitation, we propose Chain-of-Context Learning (CCL), a novel framework that progressively captures the evolving context to guide fine-grained node adaptation. Specifically, CCL constructs step-wise contextual information via a Relevance-Guided Context Reformulation (RGCR) module, which adaptively prioritizes salient constraints. This context then guides node updates through a Trajectory-Shared Node Re-embedding (TSNR) module, which aggregates shared node features from all trajectories' contexts and uses them to update inputs for the next step. By modeling evolving preferences of the RL agent, CCL captures step-by-step dependencies in sequential decision-making. We evaluate CCL on 48 diverse VRP variants, including 16 in-distribution and 32 out-of-distribution (with unseen constraints) tasks. Experimental results show that CCL performs favorably against the state-of-the-art baselines, achieving the best performance on all in-distribution tasks and the majority of out-of-distribution tasks.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

This paper introduces RouteFinder, a comprehensive foundation model framework to tackle different Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) variants. Our core idea is that a foundation model for VRPs should be able to represent variants by treating each as a subset of a generalized problem equipped with different attributes. We propose a unified VRP environment capable of efficiently handling any attribute combination. The RouteFinder model leverages a modern transformer-based encoder and global attribute embeddings to improve task representation. Additionally, we introduce two reinforcement learning techniques to enhance multi-task performance: mixed batch training, which enables training on different variants at once, and multi-variant reward normalization to balance different reward scales. Finally, we propose efficient adapter layers that enable fine-tuning for new variants with unseen attributes. Extensive experiments on 48 VRP variants show RouteFinder outperforms recent state-of-the-art learning methods. Code: https://github.com/ai4co/routefinder.

Large-scale task planning is a major challenge. Recent work exploits large language models (LLMs) directly as a policy and shows surprisingly interesting results. This paper shows that LLMs provide a commonsense model of the world in addition to a policy that acts on it. The world model and the policy can be combined in a search algorithm, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), to scale up task planning. In our new LLM-MCTS algorithm, the LLM-induced world model provides a commonsense prior belief for MCTS to achieve effective reasoning; the LLM-induced policy acts as a heuristic to guide the search, vastly improving search efficiency. Experiments show that LLM-MCTS outperforms both MCTS alone and policies induced by LLMs (GPT2 and GPT3.5) by a wide margin, for complex, novel tasks. Further experiments and analyses on multiple tasks -- multiplication, multi-hop travel planning, object rearrangement -- suggest minimum description length (MDL) as a general guiding principle: if the description length of the world model is substantially smaller than that of the policy, using LLM as a world model for model-based planning is likely better than using LLM solely as a policy.

Traditional Learning-To-Rank (LETOR) approaches, including pairwise methods like RankNet and LambdaMART, often fall short by solely focusing on pairwise comparisons, leading to sub-optimal global rankings. Conversely, deep learning based listwise methods, while aiming to optimise entire lists, require complex tuning and yield only marginal improvements over robust pairwise models. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Travelling Salesman Problem Rank (TSPRank), a hybrid pairwise-listwise ranking method. TSPRank reframes the ranking problem as a Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), a well-known combinatorial optimisation challenge that has been extensively studied for its numerous solution algorithms and applications. This approach enables the modelling of pairwise relationships and leverages combinatorial optimisation to determine the listwise ranking. This approach can be directly integrated as an additional component into embeddings generated by existing backbone models to enhance ranking performance. Our extensive experiments across three backbone models on diverse tasks, including stock ranking, information retrieval, and historical events ordering, demonstrate that TSPRank significantly outperforms both pure pairwise and listwise methods. Our qualitative analysis reveals that TSPRank's main advantage over existing methods is its ability to harness global information better while ranking. TSPRank's robustness and superior performance across different domains highlight its potential as a versatile and effective LETOR solution.

Polypharmacy, most often defined as the simultaneous consumption of five or more drugs at once, is a prevalent phenomenon in the older population. Some of these polypharmacies, deemed inappropriate, may be associated with adverse health outcomes such as death or hospitalization. Considering the combinatorial nature of the problem as well as the size of claims database and the cost to compute an exact association measure for a given drug combination, it is impossible to investigate every possible combination of drugs. Therefore, we propose to optimize the search for potentially inappropriate polypharmacies (PIPs). To this end, we propose the OptimNeuralTS strategy, based on Neural Thompson Sampling and differential evolution, to efficiently mine claims datasets and build a predictive model of the association between drug combinations and health outcomes. We benchmark our method using two datasets generated by an internally developed simulator of polypharmacy data containing 500 drugs and 100 000 distinct combinations. Empirically, our method can detect up to 72% of PIPs while maintaining an average precision score of 99% using 30 000 time steps.

In this paper we propose two algorithms in the tabular setting and an algorithm for the function approximation setting for the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. SSP problems form an important class of problems in Reinforcement Learning (RL), as other types of cost-criteria in RL can be formulated in the setting of SSP. We show asymptotic almost-sure convergence for all our algorithms. We observe superior performance of our tabular algorithms compared to other well-known convergent RL algorithms. We further observe reliable performance of our function approximation algorithm compared to other algorithms in the function approximation setting.

In this case study, the renowned Travelling Salesmen problem has been studied. Travelling Salesman problem is a most demanding computational problem in Computer Science. The Travelling Salesmen problem has been solved by two different ways using Hopfield Network. The main theory of the problem is to find distance and connectedness between nodes in a graph having edges between the nodes. The basic algorithm used for this problem is Djikstra's Algorithm. But till now , a number of such algorithms have evolved. Among them(some other algorithms) , are distinct and have been proved to solve the travelling salesmen problem by graph theory.

Neural network-based Combinatorial Optimization (CO) methods have shown promising results in solving various NP-complete (NPC) problems without relying on hand-crafted domain knowledge. This paper broadens the current scope of neural solvers for NPC problems by introducing a new graph-based diffusion framework, namely DIFUSCO. Our framework casts NPC problems as discrete {0, 1}-vector optimization problems and leverages graph-based denoising diffusion models to generate high-quality solutions. We investigate two types of diffusion models with Gaussian and Bernoulli noise, respectively, and devise an effective inference schedule to enhance the solution quality. We evaluate our methods on two well-studied NPC combinatorial optimization problems: Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) and Maximal Independent Set (MIS). Experimental results show that DIFUSCO strongly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art neural solvers, improving the performance gap between ground-truth and neural solvers from 1.76% to 0.46% on TSP-500, from 2.46% to 1.17% on TSP-1000, and from 3.19% to 2.58% on TSP10000. For the MIS problem, DIFUSCO outperforms the previous state-of-the-art neural solver on the challenging SATLIB benchmark.

This paper presents a novel virus propagation model using NetLogo. The model allows agents to move across multiple sites using different routes. Routes can be configured, enabled for mobility and (un)locked down independently. Similarly, locations can also be (un)locked down independently. Agents can get infected, propagate their infections to others, can take precautions against infection and also subsequently recover from infection. This model contains certain features that are not present in existing models. The model may be used for educational and research purposes, and the code is made available as open source. This model may also provide a broader framework for more detailed simulations. The results presented are only to demonstrate the model functionalities and do not serve any other purpose.

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however, relies not only on the quality of the momentum signal but also on the efficacy of the volatility estimator. Yet many of the existing studies have always considered these two factors to be independent. Inspired by recent progress in Multi-Task Learning (MTL), we present a new approach using MTL in a deep neural network architecture that jointly learns portfolio construction and various auxiliary tasks related to volatility, such as forecasting realized volatility as measured by different volatility estimators. Through backtesting from January 2000 to December 2020 on a diversified portfolio of continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that even after accounting for transaction costs of up to 3 basis points, our approach outperforms existing TSMOM strategies. Moreover, experiments confirm that adding auxiliary tasks indeed boosts the portfolio's performance. These findings demonstrate that MTL can be a powerful tool in finance.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically prompted to follow a single instruction per inference call. In this work, we analyze whether LLMs also hold the capability to handle multiple instructions simultaneously, denoted as Multi-Task Inference. For this purpose, we introduce the MTI Bench(Multi-Task Inference Benchmark), a comprehensive evaluation benchmark encompassing 5,000 instances across 25 tasks. Each task in the MTI Bench involves 2 to 3 sub-tasks. As expected, we first demonstrate that Multi-Task Inference reduces the total inference time by 1.46 times in average since it does not require multiple inference calls. Interestingly, contrary to the expectation that LLMs would perform better when tasks are divided, we find that state-of-the-art LLMs, such as Llama-2-Chat-70B and GPT-4, show up to 7.3% and 12.4% improved performance with Multi-Task Inference compared to Single-Task Inference on the MTI Bench. We release the MTI Bench dataset and our code at this link https://github.com/guijinSON/MTI-Bench.