Forecast examples and diagnostics

The model announcement features the geographically registered moving-core Mangkhut (2018) forecast. Its 50-member arrays and replay/playback receipts are linked there. These are development illustrations, not representative or untouched-test evidence.

Current research-report figures

The Chinese report explanation contains the current Fung-wong (2025), Mangkhut (2018) and Jebi (2018) pressure-map, five-day route/central-pressure and observed-radius panels. The day-1–5 bar chart compares released 1.2 with DeepMind Mini only, using unchanged saved scores. Figure hashes and source identities.

The report's radius figures are IBTrACS observed R34 quadrant records, not model predictions. The pressure reference remains NCEP analysis, with a common 2.5° comparison grid and no shifted forecasts. Mangkhut and Jebi are in the training years; the examples are retrospective demonstrations, not additional untouched validation. Older films and experimental radius diagnostics below keep their original provenance and should not be confused with these report figures.

Additional films

These earlier 50-member films retain a fixed issue-relative regional pressure patch. When the centre leaves it, only the saved coarse basin field covers that position. They use 4 hPa isobars and 23-second playback with a held ending; do not confuse them with the current moving-core Mangkhut rendering. Their original model outputs remain preserved.

Wind and structure

Four-storm wind comparison · audit index · experimental structure method

USA one-minute and JMA ten-minute winds are separate references. Native 1.1 RMW and quadrant R34/R50/R64 are scored against matching USA definitions. Trackformer 1.2 has an auxiliary maximum-wind scalar but no native radius head. Its pressure-derived radius candidate is not an official-equivalent prediction; masked/persistent components are not learned radius forecasts.

Storm	Exact-time comparisons	Data and assumptions
Fung-wong	Plot	Record
Soudelor	Plot	Record
Mangkhut	Plot	Record
Meranti	Plot	Record

Full evaluation

Daily protocol · all daily scores · intensity/radius protocol · native intensity results · matched pressure curves

Route uses 1,473 starts / 270 storms; the matched native pressure comparison uses 134 starts / 40 storms. JMA pressure MAE falls from 13.53 to 12.84 hPa, with paired uncertainty including zero. JMA curve similarity is 0.7074 / 0.7118 (1.1 / 1.2), while USA curve similarity is 0.7237 / 0.6637 on 131 eligible days—a regression. A centred shape score discards level and amplitude and must be read with physical hPa timelines, not used to conceal pressure errors.