Daily Papers

One of the key factors influencing the reasoning capabilities of LLM-based agents is their ability to leverage long-term memory. Integrating long-term memory mechanisms allows agents to make informed decisions grounded in historical interactions. While recent advances have significantly improved the storage and retrieval components, by encoding memory into dense vectors for similarity search or organizing memory as structured knowledge graphs most existing approaches fall short in memory updating. In particular, they lack mechanisms for dynamically refining preference memory representations in response to evolving user behaviors and contexts. To address this gap, we propose a Preference-Aware Memory Update Mechanism (PAMU) that enables dynamic and personalized memory refinement. By integrating sliding window averages (SW) with exponential moving averages (EMA), PAMU constructs a fused preference-aware representation that captures both short-term fluctuations and long-term user tendencies. We conduct experiments on five task scenarios of the LoCoMo dataset, and the results show that our mechanism can significantly improve the output quality of LLM in five baselines, validating its effectiveness in long-term conversations.

Training deep neural networks requires intricate initialization and careful selection of learning rates. The emergence of stochastic gradient optimization methods that use adaptive learning rates based on squared past gradients, e.g., AdaGrad, AdaDelta, and Adam, eases the job slightly. However, such methods have also been proven problematic in recent studies with their own pitfalls including non-convergence issues and so on. Alternative variants have been proposed for enhancement, such as AMSGrad, AdaShift and AdaBound. In this work, we identify a new problem of adaptive learning rate methods that exhibits at the beginning of learning where Adam produces extremely large learning rates that inhibit the start of learning. We propose the Adaptive and Momental Bound (AdaMod) method to restrict the adaptive learning rates with adaptive and momental upper bounds. The dynamic learning rate bounds are based on the exponential moving averages of the adaptive learning rates themselves, which smooth out unexpected large learning rates and stabilize the training of deep neural networks. Our experiments verify that AdaMod eliminates the extremely large learning rates throughout the training and brings significant improvements especially on complex networks such as DenseNet and Transformer, compared to Adam. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/lancopku/AdaMod

Stochastic Gradient Decent (SGD) is one of the core techniques behind the success of deep neural networks. The gradient provides information on the direction in which a function has the steepest rate of change. The main problem with basic SGD is to change by equal sized steps for all parameters, irrespective of gradient behavior. Hence, an efficient way of deep network optimization is to make adaptive step sizes for each parameter. Recently, several attempts have been made to improve gradient descent methods such as AdaGrad, AdaDelta, RMSProp and Adam. These methods rely on the square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Thus, these methods do not take advantage of local change in gradients. In this paper, a novel optimizer is proposed based on the difference between the present and the immediate past gradient (i.e., diffGrad). In the proposed diffGrad optimization technique, the step size is adjusted for each parameter in such a way that it should have a larger step size for faster gradient changing parameters and a lower step size for lower gradient changing parameters. The convergence analysis is done using the regret bound approach of online learning framework. Rigorous analysis is made in this paper over three synthetic complex non-convex functions. The image categorization experiments are also conducted over the CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 datasets to observe the performance of diffGrad with respect to the state-of-the-art optimizers such as SGDM, AdaGrad, AdaDelta, RMSProp, AMSGrad, and Adam. The residual unit (ResNet) based Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) architecture is used in the experiments. The experiments show that diffGrad outperforms other optimizers. Also, we show that diffGrad performs uniformly well for training CNN using different activation functions. The source code is made publicly available at https://github.com/shivram1987/diffGrad.

Deep learning optimizers are often motivated through a mix of convex and approximate second-order theory. We select three such methods -- Adam, Shampoo and Prodigy -- and argue that each method can instead be understood as a squarely first-order method without convexity assumptions. In fact, after switching off exponential moving averages, each method is equivalent to steepest descent under a particular norm. By generalizing this observation, we chart a new design space for training algorithms. Different operator norms should be assigned to different tensors based on the role that the tensor plays within the network. For example, while linear and embedding layers may have the same weight space of R^{mtimes n}, these layers play different roles and should be assigned different norms. We hope that this idea of carefully metrizing the neural architecture might lead to more stable, scalable and indeed faster training.

Several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods that have been successfully used in training deep networks such as RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta, Nadam are based on using gradient updates scaled by square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. In many applications, e.g. learning with large output spaces, it has been empirically observed that these algorithms fail to converge to an optimal solution (or a critical point in nonconvex settings). We show that one cause for such failures is the exponential moving average used in the algorithms. We provide an explicit example of a simple convex optimization setting where Adam does not converge to the optimal solution, and describe the precise problems with the previous analysis of Adam algorithm. Our analysis suggests that the convergence issues can be fixed by endowing such algorithms with `long-term memory' of past gradients, and propose new variants of the Adam algorithm which not only fix the convergence issues but often also lead to improved empirical performance.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

While contrastive approaches of self-supervised learning (SSL) learn representations by minimizing the distance between two augmented views of the same data point (positive pairs) and maximizing views from different data points (negative pairs), recent non-contrastive SSL (e.g., BYOL and SimSiam) show remarkable performance {\it without} negative pairs, with an extra learnable predictor and a stop-gradient operation. A fundamental question arises: why do these methods not collapse into trivial representations? We answer this question via a simple theoretical study and propose a novel approach, DirectPred, that directly sets the linear predictor based on the statistics of its inputs, without gradient training. On ImageNet, it performs comparably with more complex two-layer non-linear predictors that employ BatchNorm and outperforms a linear predictor by 2.5% in 300-epoch training (and 5% in 60-epoch). DirectPred is motivated by our theoretical study of the nonlinear learning dynamics of non-contrastive SSL in simple linear networks. Our study yields conceptual insights into how non-contrastive SSL methods learn, how they avoid representational collapse, and how multiple factors, like predictor networks, stop-gradients, exponential moving averages, and weight decay all come into play. Our simple theory recapitulates the results of real-world ablation studies in both STL-10 and ImageNet. Code is released https://github.com/facebookresearch/luckmatters/tree/master/ssl.

Exponential moving average (EMA) has recently gained significant popularity in training modern deep learning models, especially diffusion-based generative models. However, there have been few theoretical results explaining the effectiveness of EMA. In this paper, to better understand EMA, we establish the risk bound of online SGD with EMA for high-dimensional linear regression, one of the simplest overparameterized learning tasks that shares similarities with neural networks. Our results indicate that (i) the variance error of SGD with EMA is always smaller than that of SGD without averaging, and (ii) unlike SGD with iterate averaging from the beginning, the bias error of SGD with EMA decays exponentially in every eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Additionally, we develop proof techniques applicable to the analysis of a broad class of averaging schemes.

Adaptive gradient methods, e.g. Adam, have achieved tremendous success in machine learning. Scaling the learning rate element-wisely by a certain form of second moment estimate of gradients, such methods are able to attain rapid training of modern deep neural networks. Nevertheless, they are observed to suffer from compromised generalization ability compared with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and tend to be trapped in local minima at an early stage during training. Intriguingly, we discover that substituting the gradient in the second raw moment estimate term with its momentumized version in Adam can resolve the issue. The intuition is that gradient with momentum contains more accurate directional information and therefore its second moment estimation is a more favorable option for learning rate scaling than that of the raw gradient. Thereby we propose AdaMomentum as a new optimizer reaching the goal of training fast while generalizing much better. We further develop a theory to back up the improvement in generalization and provide convergence guarantees under both convex and nonconvex settings. Extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and models demonstrate that AdaMomentum exhibits state-of-the-art performance and superior training stability consistently.

The design choices in the Transformer attention mechanism, including weak inductive bias and quadratic computational complexity, have limited its application for modeling long sequences. In this paper, we introduce Mega, a simple, theoretically grounded, single-head gated attention mechanism equipped with (exponential) moving average to incorporate inductive bias of position-aware local dependencies into the position-agnostic attention mechanism. We further propose a variant of Mega that offers linear time and space complexity yet yields only minimal quality loss, by efficiently splitting the whole sequence into multiple chunks with fixed length. Extensive experiments on a wide range of sequence modeling benchmarks, including the Long Range Arena, neural machine translation, auto-regressive language modeling, and image and speech classification, show that Mega achieves significant improvements over other sequence models, including variants of Transformers and recent state space models.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) aligns large language models (LLMs) by encouraging their generations to have high rewards, using a reward model trained on human preferences. To prevent the forgetting of pre-trained knowledge, RLHF usually incorporates a KL regularization; this forces the policy to remain close to its supervised fine-tuned initialization, though it hinders the reward optimization. To tackle the trade-off between KL and reward, in this paper we introduce a novel alignment strategy named Weight Averaged Rewarded Policies (WARP). WARP merges policies in the weight space at three distinct stages. First, it uses the exponential moving average of the policy as a dynamic anchor in the KL regularization. Second, it applies spherical interpolation to merge independently fine-tuned policies into a new enhanced one. Third, it linearly interpolates between this merged model and the initialization, to recover features from pre-training. This procedure is then applied iteratively, with each iteration's final model used as an advanced initialization for the next, progressively refining the KL-reward Pareto front, achieving superior rewards at fixed KL. Experiments with GEMMA policies validate that WARP improves their quality and alignment, outperforming other open-source LLMs.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a widely used weight averaging (WA) regularization to learn flat optima for better generalizations without extra cost in deep neural network (DNN) optimization. Despite achieving better flatness, existing WA methods might fall into worse final performances or require extra test-time computations. This work unveils the full potential of EMA with a single line of modification, i.e., switching the EMA parameters to the original model after each epoch, dubbed as Switch EMA (SEMA). From both theoretical and empirical aspects, we demonstrate that SEMA can help DNNs to reach generalization optima that better trade-off between flatness and sharpness. To verify the effectiveness of SEMA, we conduct comparison experiments with discriminative, generative, and regression tasks on vision and language datasets, including image classification, self-supervised learning, object detection and segmentation, image generation, video prediction, attribute regression, and language modeling. Comprehensive results with popular optimizers and networks show that SEMA is a free lunch for DNN training by improving performances and boosting convergence speeds.

Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning, often caused by the small batch sizes typically used in this regime, can destabilize training by introducing large oscillations in generation quality. A popular approach to mitigating this instability is to take an Exponential moving average (EMA) of weights throughout training. While EMA reduces stochasticity, thereby smoothing training, the introduction of bias from old iterates often creates a lag in optimization relative to vanilla training. In this work, we propose the Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA), a simple and practical augmentation of EMA that retains variance-reduction benefits while eliminating bias. BEMA is motivated by a simple theoretical model wherein we demonstrate provable acceleration of BEMA over both a standard EMA and vanilla training. Through an extensive suite of experiments on Language Models, we show that BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance over both EMA and vanilla training in a variety of standard LM benchmarks, making BEMA a practical and theoretically motivated intervention for more stable and efficient fine-tuning.

Deep neural networks conventionally employ end-to-end backpropagation for their training process, which lacks biological credibility and triggers a locking dilemma during network parameter updates, leading to significant GPU memory use. Supervised local learning, which segments the network into multiple local blocks updated by independent auxiliary networks. However, these methods cannot replace end-to-end training due to lower accuracy, as gradients only propagate within their local block, creating a lack of information exchange between blocks. To address this issue and establish information transfer across blocks, we propose a Momentum Auxiliary Network (MAN) that establishes a dynamic interaction mechanism. The MAN leverages an exponential moving average (EMA) of the parameters from adjacent local blocks to enhance information flow. This auxiliary network, updated through EMA, helps bridge the informational gap between blocks. Nevertheless, we observe that directly applying EMA parameters has certain limitations due to feature discrepancies among local blocks. To overcome this, we introduce learnable biases, further boosting performance. We have validated our method on four image classification datasets (CIFAR-10, STL-10, SVHN, ImageNet), attaining superior performance and substantial memory savings. Notably, our method can reduce GPU memory usage by more than 45\% on the ImageNet dataset compared to end-to-end training, while achieving higher performance. The Momentum Auxiliary Network thus offers a new perspective for supervised local learning. Our code is available at: https://github.com/JunhaoSu0/MAN.

Most popular optimizers for deep learning can be broadly categorized as adaptive methods (e.g. Adam) and accelerated schemes (e.g. stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with momentum). For many models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), adaptive methods typically converge faster but generalize worse compared to SGD; for complex settings such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), adaptive methods are typically the default because of their stability.We propose AdaBelief to simultaneously achieve three goals: fast convergence as in adaptive methods, good generalization as in SGD, and training stability. The intuition for AdaBelief is to adapt the stepsize according to the "belief" in the current gradient direction. Viewing the exponential moving average (EMA) of the noisy gradient as the prediction of the gradient at the next time step, if the observed gradient greatly deviates from the prediction, we distrust the current observation and take a small step; if the observed gradient is close to the prediction, we trust it and take a large step. We validate AdaBelief in extensive experiments, showing that it outperforms other methods with fast convergence and high accuracy on image classification and language modeling. Specifically, on ImageNet, AdaBelief achieves comparable accuracy to SGD. Furthermore, in the training of a GAN on Cifar10, AdaBelief demonstrates high stability and improves the quality of generated samples compared to a well-tuned Adam optimizer. Code is available at https://github.com/juntang-zhuang/Adabelief-Optimizer

The quadratic complexity and weak length extrapolation of Transformers limits their ability to scale to long sequences, and while sub-quadratic solutions like linear attention and state space models exist, they empirically underperform Transformers in pretraining efficiency and downstream task accuracy. We introduce Megalodon, a neural architecture for efficient sequence modeling with unlimited context length. Megalodon inherits the architecture of Mega (exponential moving average with gated attention), and further introduces multiple technical components to improve its capability and stability, including complex exponential moving average (CEMA), timestep normalization layer, normalized attention mechanism and pre-norm with two-hop residual configuration. In a controlled head-to-head comparison with Llama2, Megalodon achieves better efficiency than Transformer in the scale of 7 billion parameters and 2 trillion training tokens. Megalodon reaches a training loss of 1.70, landing mid-way between Llama2-7B (1.75) and 13B (1.67). Code: https://github.com/XuezheMax/megalodon

Preserving training dynamics across batch sizes is an important tool for practical machine learning as it enables the trade-off between batch size and wall-clock time. This trade-off is typically enabled by a scaling rule, for example, in stochastic gradient descent, one should scale the learning rate linearly with the batch size. Another important tool for practical machine learning is the model Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a model copy that does not receive gradient information, but instead follows its target model with some momentum. This model EMA can improve the robustness and generalization properties of supervised learning, stabilize pseudo-labeling, and provide a learning signal for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL). Prior works have treated the model EMA separately from optimization, leading to different training dynamics across batch sizes and lower model performance. In this work, we provide a scaling rule for optimization in the presence of model EMAs and demonstrate its validity across a range of architectures, optimizers, and data modalities. We also show the rule's validity where the model EMA contributes to the optimization of the target model, enabling us to train EMA-based pseudo-labeling and SSL methods at small and large batch sizes. For SSL, we enable training of BYOL up to batch size 24,576 without sacrificing performance, optimally a 6times wall-clock time reduction.

Momentum based optimizers are central to a wide range of machine learning applications. These typically rely on an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of gradients, which decays exponentially the present contribution of older gradients. This accounts for gradients being local linear approximations which lose their relevance as the iterate moves along the loss landscape. This work questions the use of a single EMA to accumulate past gradients and empirically demonstrates how this choice can be sub-optimal: a single EMA cannot simultaneously give a high weight to the immediate past, and a non-negligible weight to older gradients. Building on this observation, we propose AdEMAMix, a simple modification of the Adam optimizer with a mixture of two EMAs to better take advantage of past gradients. Our experiments on language modeling and image classification show -- quite surprisingly -- that gradients can stay relevant for tens of thousands of steps. They help to converge faster, and often to lower minima: e.g., a 1.3B parameter AdEMAMix LLM trained on 101B tokens performs comparably to an AdamW model trained on 197B tokens (+95%). Moreover, our method significantly slows-down model forgetting during training. Our work motivates further exploration of different types of functions to leverage past gradients, beyond EMAs.

Image-Text pretraining on web-scale image caption dataset has become the default recipe for open vocabulary classification and retrieval models thanks to the success of CLIP and its variants. Several works have also used CLIP features for dense prediction tasks and have shown the emergence of open-set abilities. However, the contrastive objective only focuses on image-text alignment and does not incentivise image feature learning for dense prediction tasks. In this work, we propose the simple addition of local-to-global correspondence learning by self-distillation as an additional objective for contrastive pre-training to propose SILC. We show that distilling local image features from an exponential moving average (EMA) teacher model significantly improves model performance on several computer vision tasks including classification, retrieval, and especially segmentation. We further show that SILC scales better with the same training duration compared to the baselines. Our model SILC sets a new state of the art for zero-shot classification, few shot classification, image and text retrieval, zero-shot segmentation, and open vocabulary segmentation.

LLMs are commonly trained with a learning rate (LR) warmup, followed by cosine decay to 10% of the maximum (10x decay). In a large-scale empirical study, we show that under an optimal peak LR, a simple linear decay-to-zero (D2Z) schedule consistently outperforms other schedules when training at compute-optimal dataset sizes. D2Z is superior across a range of model sizes, batch sizes, datasets, and vocabularies. Benefits increase as dataset size increases. Leveraging a novel interpretation of AdamW as an exponential moving average of weight updates, we show how linear D2Z optimally balances the demands of early training (moving away from initial conditions) and late training (averaging over more updates in order to mitigate gradient noise). In experiments, a 610M-parameter model trained for 80 tokens-per-parameter (TPP) using D2Z achieves lower loss than when trained for 200 TPP using 10x decay, corresponding to an astonishing 60% compute savings. Models such as Llama2-7B, trained for 286 TPP with 10x decay, could likely have saved a majority of compute by training with D2Z.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

Continual Instruction Tuning (CIT) is adopted to continually instruct Large Models to follow human intent data by data. It is observed that existing gradient update would heavily destroy the performance on previous datasets during CIT process. Instead, Exponential Moving Average (EMA), owns the ability to trace previous parameters, which can aid in decreasing forgetting. Nonetheless, its stable balance weight fails to deal with the ever-changing datasets, leading to the out-of-balance between plasticity and stability. In this paper, we propose a general continual instruction tuning framework to address the challenge. Starting from the trade-off prerequisite and EMA update, we propose the plasticity and stability ideal condition. Based on Taylor expansion in the loss function, we find the optimal balance weight can be automatically determined by the gradients and learned parameters. Therefore, we propose a stable-plasticity balanced coefficient to avoid knowledge interference. Based on the semantic similarity of the instructions, we can determine whether to retrain or expand the training parameters and allocate the most suitable parameters for the testing instances. Extensive experiments across multiple continual instruction tuning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only enhances anti-forgetting capabilities but also significantly improves overall continual tuning performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/JingyangQiao/CoIN.

Audio-Visual Source Localization (AVSL) is the task of identifying specific sounding objects in the scene given audio cues. In our work, we focus on semi-supervised AVSL with pseudo-labeling. To address the issues with vanilla hard pseudo-labels including bias accumulation, noise sensitivity, and instability, we propose a novel method named Cross Pseudo-Labeling (XPL), wherein two models learn from each other with the cross-refine mechanism to avoid bias accumulation. We equip XPL with two effective components. Firstly, the soft pseudo-labels with sharpening and pseudo-label exponential moving average mechanisms enable models to achieve gradual self-improvement and ensure stable training. Secondly, the curriculum data selection module adaptively selects pseudo-labels with high quality during training to mitigate potential bias. Experimental results demonstrate that XPL significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance while effectively mitigating confirmation bias and ensuring training stability.

This paper presents that the masked-modeling principle driving the success of large foundational vision models can be effectively applied to audio by making predictions in a latent space. We introduce Audio-based Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (A-JEPA), a simple extension method for self-supervised learning from the audio spectrum. Following the design of I-JEPA, our A-JEPA encodes visible audio spectrogram patches with a curriculum masking strategy via context encoder, and predicts the representations of regions sampled at well-designed locations. The target representations of those regions are extracted by the exponential moving average of context encoder, i.e., target encoder, on the whole spectrogram. We find it beneficial to transfer random block masking into time-frequency aware masking in a curriculum manner, considering the complexity of highly correlated in local time and frequency in audio spectrograms. To enhance contextual semantic understanding and robustness, we fine-tune the encoder with a regularized masking on target datasets, instead of input dropping or zero. Empirically, when built with Vision Transformers structure, we find A-JEPA to be highly scalable and sets new state-of-the-art performance on multiple audio and speech classification tasks, outperforming other recent models that use externally supervised pre-training.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) incurs significant cost; hence, any strategy that accelerates model convergence is helpful. In this paper, we investigate the ability of a simple idea checkpoint averaging along the trajectory of a training run to improve both convergence and generalization quite early on during training. Here we show that models trained with high learning rates observe higher gains due to checkpoint averaging. Furthermore, these gains are amplified when checkpoints are sampled with considerable spacing in training steps. Our training recipe outperforms conventional training and popular checkpoint averaging baselines such as exponential moving average (EMA) and stochastic moving average (SWA). We evaluate our training recipe by pre-training LLMs, where high learning rates are inherently preferred due to extremely large batch sizes. Specifically, we pre-trained nanoGPT-2 models of varying sizes, small (125M), medium (335M), and large (770M)on the OpenWebText dataset, comprised of 9B tokens. Additionally, we present results for publicly available Pythia LLMs, ranging from 1B to 12B, which were trained on the PILE-deduped dataset containing 207B tokens.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Digitizing pathological images into gigapixel Whole Slide Images (WSIs) has opened new avenues for Computational Pathology (CPath). As positive tissue comprises only a small fraction of gigapixel WSIs, existing Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) methods typically focus on identifying salient instances via attention mechanisms. However, this leads to a bias towards easy-to-classify instances while neglecting challenging ones. Recent studies have shown that hard examples are crucial for accurately modeling discriminative boundaries. Applying such an idea at the instance level, we elaborate a novel MIL framework with masked hard instance mining (MHIM-MIL), which utilizes a Siamese structure with a consistency constraint to explore the hard instances. Using a class-aware instance probability, MHIM-MIL employs a momentum teacher to mask salient instances and implicitly mine hard instances for training the student model. To obtain diverse, non-redundant hard instances, we adopt large-scale random masking while utilizing a global recycle network to mitigate the risk of losing key features. Furthermore, the student updates the teacher using an exponential moving average, which identifies new hard instances for subsequent training iterations and stabilizes optimization. Experimental results on cancer diagnosis, subtyping, survival analysis tasks, and 12 benchmarks demonstrate that MHIM-MIL outperforms the latest methods in both performance and efficiency. The code is available at: https://github.com/DearCaat/MHIM-MIL.

Diffusion models currently dominate the field of data-driven image synthesis with their unparalleled scaling to large datasets. In this paper, we identify and rectify several causes for uneven and ineffective training in the popular ADM diffusion model architecture, without altering its high-level structure. Observing uncontrolled magnitude changes and imbalances in both the network activations and weights over the course of training, we redesign the network layers to preserve activation, weight, and update magnitudes on expectation. We find that systematic application of this philosophy eliminates the observed drifts and imbalances, resulting in considerably better networks at equal computational complexity. Our modifications improve the previous record FID of 2.41 in ImageNet-512 synthesis to 1.81, achieved using fast deterministic sampling. As an independent contribution, we present a method for setting the exponential moving average (EMA) parameters post-hoc, i.e., after completing the training run. This allows precise tuning of EMA length without the cost of performing several training runs, and reveals its surprising interactions with network architecture, training time, and guidance.

Data mixing augmentation has been widely applied to improve the generalization ability of deep neural networks. Recently, offline data mixing augmentation, e.g. handcrafted and saliency information-based mixup, has been gradually replaced by automatic mixing approaches. Through minimizing two sub-tasks, namely, mixed sample generation and mixup classification in an end-to-end way, AutoMix significantly improves accuracy on image classification tasks. However, as the optimization objective is consistent for the two sub-tasks, this approach is prone to generating consistent instead of diverse mixed samples, which results in overfitting for target task training. In this paper, we propose AdAutomixup, an adversarial automatic mixup augmentation approach that generates challenging samples to train a robust classifier for image classification, by alternatively optimizing the classifier and the mixup sample generator. AdAutomixup comprises two modules, a mixed example generator, and a target classifier. The mixed sample generator aims to produce hard mixed examples to challenge the target classifier, while the target classifier's aim is to learn robust features from hard mixed examples to improve generalization. To prevent the collapse of the inherent meanings of images, we further introduce an exponential moving average (EMA) teacher and cosine similarity to train AdAutomixup in an end-to-end way. Extensive experiments on seven image benchmarks consistently prove that our approach outperforms the state of the art in various classification scenarios. The source code is available at https://github.com/JinXins/Adversarial-AutoMixup.

Continued pretraining (CPT) is a popular approach to adapt existing large language models (LLMs) to new languages. When doing so, it is common practice to include a portion of English data in the mixture, but its role has not been carefully studied to date. In this work, we show that including English does not impact validation perplexity, yet it is critical for the emergence of downstream capabilities in the target language. We introduce a language-agnostic benchmark for in-context learning (ICL), which reveals catastrophic forgetting early on CPT when English is not included. This in turn damages the ability of the model to generalize to downstream prompts in the target language as measured by perplexity, even if it does not manifest in terms of accuracy until later in training, and can be tied to a big shift in the model parameters. Based on these insights, we introduce curriculum learning and exponential moving average (EMA) of weights as effective alternatives to mitigate the need for English. All in all, our work sheds light into the dynamics by which emergent abilities arise when doing CPT for language adaptation, and can serve as a foundation to design more effective methods in the future.

The whole slide image (WSI) classification is often formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. Since the positive tissue is only a small fraction of the gigapixel WSI, existing MIL methods intuitively focus on identifying salient instances via attention mechanisms. However, this leads to a bias towards easy-to-classify instances while neglecting hard-to-classify instances. Some literature has revealed that hard examples are beneficial for modeling a discriminative boundary accurately. By applying such an idea at the instance level, we elaborate a novel MIL framework with masked hard instance mining (MHIM-MIL), which uses a Siamese structure (Teacher-Student) with a consistency constraint to explore the potential hard instances. With several instance masking strategies based on attention scores, MHIM-MIL employs a momentum teacher to implicitly mine hard instances for training the student model, which can be any attention-based MIL model. This counter-intuitive strategy essentially enables the student to learn a better discriminating boundary. Moreover, the student is used to update the teacher with an exponential moving average (EMA), which in turn identifies new hard instances for subsequent training iterations and stabilizes the optimization. Experimental results on the CAMELYON-16 and TCGA Lung Cancer datasets demonstrate that MHIM-MIL outperforms other latest methods in terms of performance and training cost. The code is available at: https://github.com/DearCaat/MHIM-MIL.

In our work we not explicitly hint that it is a misconception to think that humans learn fast. Learning process takes time. Babies start learning to move in the restricted liquid area called placenta. Children often are limited by underdeveloped body. Even adults are not allowed to participate in complex competitions right away. However, with robots, when learning from scratch, we often don't have the privilege of waiting for dozen millions of steps. "Swaddling" regularization is responsible for restraining an agent in rapid but unstable development penalizing action strength in a specific way not affecting actions directly. The Symphony, Transitional-policy Deterministic Actor and Critic algorithm, is a concise combination of different ideas for possibility of training humanoid robots from scratch with Sample Efficiency, Sample Proximity and Safety of Actions in mind. It is no secret that continuous increase in Gaussian noise without appropriate smoothing is harmful for motors and gearboxes. Compared to Stochastic algorithms, we set a limited parametric noise and promote a reduced strength of actions, safely increasing entropy, since the actions are kind of immersed in weaker noise. When actions require more extreme values, actions rise above the weak noise. Training becomes empirically much safer for both the environment around and the robot's mechanisms. We use Fading Replay Buffer: using a fixed formula containing the hyperbolic tangent, we adjust the batch sampling probability: the memory contains a recent memory and a long-term memory trail. Fading Replay Buffer allows us to use Temporal Advantage when we improve the current Critic Network prediction compared to the exponential moving average. Temporal Advantage allows us to update Actor and Critic in one pass, as well as combine Actor and Critic in one Object and implement their Losses in one line.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Recent progress in weakly supervised object detection is featured by a combination of multiple instance detection networks (MIDN) and ordinal online refinement. However, with only image-level annotation, MIDN inevitably assigns high scores to some unexpected region proposals when generating pseudo labels. These inaccurate high-scoring region proposals will mislead the training of subsequent refinement modules and thus hamper the detection performance. In this work, we explore how to ameliorate the quality of pseudo-labeling in MIDN. Formally, we devise Cyclic-Bootstrap Labeling (CBL), a novel weakly supervised object detection pipeline, which optimizes MIDN with rank information from a reliable teacher network. Specifically, we obtain this teacher network by introducing a weighted exponential moving average strategy to take advantage of various refinement modules. A novel class-specific ranking distillation algorithm is proposed to leverage the output of weighted ensembled teacher network for distilling MIDN with rank information. As a result, MIDN is guided to assign higher scores to accurate proposals among their neighboring ones, thus benefiting the subsequent pseudo labeling. Extensive experiments on the prevalent PASCAL VOC 2007 \& 2012 and COCO datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our CBL framework. Code will be available at https://github.com/Yinyf0804/WSOD-CBL/.

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new closed-form predictor variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at 100 and 300 epochs (top-1 linear accuracy on ImageNet).

Video Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (V-JEPA) learn generalizable off-the-shelf video representation by predicting masked regions in latent space with an exponential moving average (EMA)-updated teacher. While EMA prevents representation collapse, it complicates scalable model selection and couples teacher and student architectures. We revisit masked-latent prediction and show that a frozen teacher suffices. Concretely, we (i) train a target encoder with a simple pixel-reconstruction objective under V-JEPA masking, then (ii) freeze it and train a student to predict the teacher's latents on masked regions. This leads to a two-stage, unregularized scheme that we refer to as SALT (Static-teacher Asymmetric Latent Training). SALT decouples optimization into pixel reconstruction (teacher) and masked latent prediction (student), increasing transparency, efficiency, and scalability while preserving the ability of representation to generalize under frozen evaluation. Empirically, our student models outperform recently proposed V-JEPA 2 encoders under frozen backbone evaluation across diverse benchmarks. They are also more compute-optimal: at matched pretraining FLOPs, our method achieves higher probing accuracy, and its scaling curves dominate V-JEPA's accuracy-FLOPs Pareto frontier. Finally, we find that student quality is remarkably robust to teacher quality: high-performing students emerge even with small, sub-optimal teachers. This points to a compute budget allocation that should overwhelmingly favor the student. These results position SALT as a simple, scalable, and compute-efficient alternative to EMA-based self-distillation for video representation learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) face increasing loss spikes during scaling, undermining training stability and final performance. While gradient clipping mitigates this issue, traditional global approaches poorly handle parameter-specific gradient variations and decaying gradient norms. We propose **AdaGC**, an adaptive gradient clipping framework that automatically adjusts local thresholds per parameter through exponential moving average of gradient norms. Theoretical analysis proves AdaGC's convergence under non-convex conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate significant improvements: On Llama-2 7B/13B, AdaGC completely eliminates loss spikes while reducing WikiText perplexity by 3.5% (+0.14pp LAMBADA accuracy) for 7B and achieving 0.65% lower training loss with 1.47% reduced validation perplexity for 13B compared to global clipping. For CLIP ViT-Base, AdaGC converges 25% faster than StableAdamW with full spike elimination. The method shows universal effectiveness across architectures (Llama-2 7B/13B) and modalities (CLIP), with successful integration into diverse optimizers like AdamW and Lion. Source code will be released on GitHub.

Efficient streaming video generation is critical for simulating interactive and dynamic worlds. Existing methods distill few-step video diffusion models with sliding window attention, using initial frames as sink tokens to maintain attention performance and reduce error accumulation. However, video frames become overly dependent on these static tokens, resulting in copied initial frames and diminished motion dynamics. To address this, we introduce Reward Forcing, a novel framework with two key designs. First, we propose EMA-Sink, which maintains fixed-size tokens initialized from initial frames and continuously updated by fusing evicted tokens via exponential moving average as they exit the sliding window. Without additional computation cost, EMA-Sink tokens capture both long-term context and recent dynamics, preventing initial frame copying while maintaining long-horizon consistency. Second, to better distill motion dynamics from teacher models, we propose a novel Rewarded Distribution Matching Distillation (Re-DMD). Vanilla distribution matching treats every training sample equally, limiting the model's ability to prioritize dynamic content. Instead, Re-DMD biases the model's output distribution toward high-reward regions by prioritizing samples with greater dynamics rated by a vision-language model. Re-DMD significantly enhances motion quality while preserving data fidelity. We include both quantitative and qualitative experiments to show that Reward Forcing achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks while enabling high-quality streaming video generation at 23.1 FPS on a single H100 GPU.

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has achieved success on multiple downstream tasks by aligning image and text modalities. However, the nature of global contrastive learning limits CLIP's ability to comprehend compositional concepts, such as relations and attributes. Although recent studies employ global hard negative samples to improve compositional understanding, these methods significantly compromise the model's inherent general capabilities by forcibly distancing textual negative samples from images in the embedding space. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a Decoupled Global-Local Alignment (DeGLA) framework that improves compositional understanding while substantially mitigating losses in general capabilities. To optimize the retention of the model's inherent capabilities, we incorporate a self-distillation mechanism within the global alignment process, aligning the learnable image-text encoder with a frozen teacher model derived from an exponential moving average. Under the constraint of self-distillation, it effectively mitigates the catastrophic forgetting of pretrained knowledge during fine-tuning. To improve compositional understanding, we first leverage the in-context learning capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to construct about 2M high-quality negative captions across five types. Subsequently, we propose the Image-Grounded Contrast (IGC) loss and Text-Grounded Contrast (TGC) loss to enhance vision-language compositionally. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the DeGLA framework. Compared to previous state-of-the-art methods, DeGLA achieves an average enhancement of 3.5% across the VALSE, SugarCrepe, and ARO benchmarks. Concurrently, it obtains an average performance improvement of 13.0% on zero-shot classification tasks across eleven datasets. Our code will be released at https://github.com/xiaoxing2001/DeGLA

The mechanisms behind the success of multi-view self-supervised learning (MVSSL) are not yet fully understood. Contrastive MVSSL methods have been studied through the lens of InfoNCE, a lower bound of the Mutual Information (MI). However, the relation between other MVSSL methods and MI remains unclear. We consider a different lower bound on the MI consisting of an entropy and a reconstruction term (ER), and analyze the main MVSSL families through its lens. Through this ER bound, we show that clustering-based methods such as DeepCluster and SwAV maximize the MI. We also re-interpret the mechanisms of distillation-based approaches such as BYOL and DINO, showing that they explicitly maximize the reconstruction term and implicitly encourage a stable entropy, and we confirm this empirically. We show that replacing the objectives of common MVSSL methods with this ER bound achieves competitive performance, while making them stable when training with smaller batch sizes or smaller exponential moving average (EMA) coefficients. Github repo: https://github.com/apple/ml-entropy-reconstruction.

Large audio-language models (LALMs) show strong zero-shot ability on speech tasks, suggesting promise for speech emotion recognition (SER). However, SER in real-world deployments often fails under domain mismatch, where source data are unavailable and powerful LALMs are accessible only through an API. We ask: given only unlabeled target-domain audio and an API-only LALM, can a student model be adapted to outperform the LALM in the target domain? To this end, we propose MI-Fuse, a denoised label fusion framework that supplements the LALM with a source-domain trained SER classifier as an auxiliary teacher. The framework draws multiple stochastic predictions from both teachers, weights their mean distributions by mutual-information-based uncertainty, and stabilizes training with an exponential moving average teacher. Experiments across three public emotion datasets and six cross-domain transfers show consistent gains, with the student surpassing the LALM and outperforming the strongest baseline by 3.9%. This approach strengthens emotion-aware speech systems without sharing source data, enabling realistic adaptation.

3D reconstruction from in-the-wild images remains a challenging task due to inconsistent lighting conditions and transient distractors. Existing methods typically rely on heuristic strategies to handle the low-quality training data, which often struggle to produce stable and consistent reconstructions, frequently resulting in visual artifacts. In this work, we propose Asymmetric Dual 3DGS, a novel framework that leverages the stochastic nature of these artifacts: they tend to vary across different training runs due to minor randomness. Specifically, our method trains two 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) models in parallel, enforcing a consistency constraint that encourages convergence on reliable scene geometry while suppressing inconsistent artifacts. To prevent the two models from collapsing into similar failure modes due to confirmation bias, we introduce a divergent masking strategy that applies two complementary masks: a multi-cue adaptive mask and a self-supervised soft mask, which leads to an asymmetric training process of the two models, reducing shared error modes. In addition, to improve the efficiency of model training, we introduce a lightweight variant called Dynamic EMA Proxy, which replaces one of the two models with a dynamically updated Exponential Moving Average (EMA) proxy, and employs an alternating masking strategy to preserve divergence. Extensive experiments on challenging real-world datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing approaches while achieving high efficiency. Codes and trained models will be released.

Adaptive chatbots that mimic a user's linguistic style can build rapport and engagement, yet unconstrained mimicry risks an agent that feels unstable or sycophantic. We present a computational evaluation framework that makes the core design tension explicit: balancing moment-to-moment linguistic synchrony against long-term persona stability. Using an 8-dimensional style vector and a closed-loop "base+delta" prompting architecture, we simulate and compare explicit adaptation policies - Uncapped, Cap, Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Dead-Band, and Hybrids - on a human-log dataset. Our analysis maps a clear Pareto frontier: bounded policies achieve substantial gains in stability at a modest cost to synchrony. For example, a Hybrid (EMA+Cap) raises stability from 0.542 to 0.878 (+62%) while reducing synchrony by only 17%. We confirm this trade-off through large-scale replications on three public corpora (DailyDialog, Persona-Chat, EmpatheticDialogues) and LLM-in-the-loop validation across two model families. Furthermore, we quantify "prompt legibility," showing that frontier policies reduce instruction churn and cut jarring register flips (major tone changes) from 0.254 to 0.092, yielding systems that are easier to reason about and maintain. Taken together, our framework provides a general evaluation harness for style adaptation; a systematic ablation that identifies Pareto-efficient policies; robust validation across diverse datasets and models; and novel legibility metrics linking policy choices to system maintainability.

The ability of deep neural networks to continually learn and adapt to a sequence of tasks has remained challenging due to catastrophic forgetting of previously learned tasks. Humans, on the other hand, have a remarkable ability to acquire, assimilate, and transfer knowledge across tasks throughout their lifetime without catastrophic forgetting. The versatility of the brain can be attributed to the rehearsal of abstract experiences through a complementary learning system. However, representation rehearsal in vision transformers lacks diversity, resulting in overfitting and consequently, performance drops significantly compared to raw image rehearsal. Therefore, we propose BiRT, a novel representation rehearsal-based continual learning approach using vision transformers. Specifically, we introduce constructive noises at various stages of the vision transformer and enforce consistency in predictions with respect to an exponential moving average of the working model. Our method provides consistent performance gain over raw image and vanilla representation rehearsal on several challenging CL benchmarks, while being memory efficient and robust to natural and adversarial corruptions.

In this paper, we introduce ProtoOcc, a novel 3D occupancy prediction model designed to predict the occupancy states and semantic classes of 3D voxels through a deep semantic understanding of scenes. ProtoOcc consists of two main components: the Dual Branch Encoder (DBE) and the Prototype Query Decoder (PQD). The DBE produces a new 3D voxel representation by combining 3D voxel and BEV representations across multiple scales through a dual branch structure. This design enhances both performance and computational efficiency by providing a large receptive field for the BEV representation while maintaining a smaller receptive field for the voxel representation. The PQD introduces Prototype Queries to accelerate the decoding process. Scene-Adaptive Prototypes are derived from the 3D voxel features of input sample, while Scene-Agnostic Prototypes are computed by applying Scene-Adaptive Prototypes to an Exponential Moving Average during the training phase. By using these prototype-based queries for decoding, we can directly predict 3D occupancy in a single step, eliminating the need for iterative Transformer decoding. Additionally, we propose the Robust Prototype Learning, which injects noise into prototype generation process and trains the model to denoise during the training phase. ProtoOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance with 45.02% mIoU on the Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark. For single-frame method, it reaches 39.56% mIoU with an inference speed of 12.83 FPS on an NVIDIA RTX 3090. Our code can be found at https://github.com/SPA-junghokim/ProtoOcc.

Syllables are compositional units of spoken language that play a crucial role in human speech perception and production. However, current neural speech representations lack structure, resulting in dense token sequences that are costly to process. To bridge this gap, we propose a new model, Sylber, that produces speech representations with clean and robust syllabic structure. Specifically, we propose a self-supervised model that regresses features on syllabic segments distilled from a teacher model which is an exponential moving average of the model in training. This results in a highly structured representation of speech features, offering three key benefits: 1) a fast, linear-time syllable segmentation algorithm, 2) efficient syllabic tokenization with an average of 4.27 tokens per second, and 3) syllabic units better suited for lexical and syntactic understanding. We also train token-to-speech generative models with our syllabic units and show that fully intelligible speech can be reconstructed from these tokens. Lastly, we observe that categorical perception, a linguistic phenomenon of speech perception, emerges naturally in our model, making the embedding space more categorical and sparse than previous self-supervised learning approaches. Together, we present a novel self-supervised approach for representing speech as syllables, with significant potential for efficient speech tokenization and spoken language modeling.

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) aims to adapt a pretrained model to ever-changing environments during the test time under continuous domain shifts. Most existing CTTA approaches are based on the Mean Teacher (MT) structure, which contains a student and a teacher model, where the student is updated using the pseudo-labels from the teacher model, and the teacher is then updated by exponential moving average strategy. However, these methods update the MT model indiscriminately on all parameters of the model. That is, some critical parameters involving sharing knowledge across different domains may be erased, intensifying error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, we introduce Parameter-Selective Mean Teacher (PSMT) method, which is capable of effectively updating the critical parameters within the MT network under domain shifts. First, we introduce a selective distillation mechanism in the student model, which utilizes past knowledge to regularize novel knowledge, thereby mitigating the impact of error accumulation. Second, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, in the teacher model, we create a mask through Fisher information to selectively update parameters via exponential moving average, with preservation measures applied to crucial parameters. Extensive experimental results verify that PSMT outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/JiaxuTian/PSMT.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

The teacher-student framework, prevalent in semi-supervised semantic segmentation, mainly employs the exponential moving average (EMA) to update a single teacher's weights based on the student's. However, EMA updates raise a problem in that the weights of the teacher and student are getting coupled, causing a potential performance bottleneck. Furthermore, this problem may become more severe when training with more complicated labels such as segmentation masks but with few annotated data. This paper introduces Dual Teacher, a simple yet effective approach that employs dual temporary teachers aiming to alleviate the coupling problem for the student. The temporary teachers work in shifts and are progressively improved, so consistently prevent the teacher and student from becoming excessively close. Specifically, the temporary teachers periodically take turns generating pseudo-labels to train a student model and maintain the distinct characteristics of the student model for each epoch. Consequently, Dual Teacher achieves competitive performance on the PASCAL VOC, Cityscapes, and ADE20K benchmarks with remarkably shorter training times than state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach is model-agnostic and compatible with both CNN- and Transformer-based models. Code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/dual-teacher.

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

In unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA), a model trained on source data (e.g. synthetic) is adapted to target data (e.g. real-world) without access to target annotation. Most previous UDA methods struggle with classes that have a similar visual appearance on the target domain as no ground truth is available to learn the slight appearance differences. To address this problem, we propose a Masked Image Consistency (MIC) module to enhance UDA by learning spatial context relations of the target domain as additional clues for robust visual recognition. MIC enforces the consistency between predictions of masked target images, where random patches are withheld, and pseudo-labels that are generated based on the complete image by an exponential moving average teacher. To minimize the consistency loss, the network has to learn to infer the predictions of the masked regions from their context. Due to its simple and universal concept, MIC can be integrated into various UDA methods across different visual recognition tasks such as image classification, semantic segmentation, and object detection. MIC significantly improves the state-of-the-art performance across the different recognition tasks for synthetic-to-real, day-to-nighttime, and clear-to-adverse-weather UDA. For instance, MIC achieves an unprecedented UDA performance of 75.9 mIoU and 92.8% on GTA-to-Cityscapes and VisDA-2017, respectively, which corresponds to an improvement of +2.1 and +3.0 percent points over the previous state of the art. The implementation is available at https://github.com/lhoyer/MIC.

We introduce ADAHESSIAN, a second order stochastic optimization algorithm which dynamically incorporates the curvature of the loss function via ADAptive estimates of the HESSIAN. Second order algorithms are among the most powerful optimization algorithms with superior convergence properties as compared to first order methods such as SGD and Adam. The main disadvantage of traditional second order methods is their heavier per iteration computation and poor accuracy as compared to first order methods. To address these, we incorporate several novel approaches in ADAHESSIAN, including: (i) a fast Hutchinson based method to approximate the curvature matrix with low computational overhead; (ii) a root-mean-square exponential moving average to smooth out variations of the Hessian diagonal across different iterations; and (iii) a block diagonal averaging to reduce the variance of Hessian diagonal elements. We show that ADAHESSIAN achieves new state-of-the-art results by a large margin as compared to other adaptive optimization methods, including variants of Adam. In particular, we perform extensive tests on CV, NLP, and recommendation system tasks and find that ADAHESSIAN: (i) achieves 1.80%/1.45% higher accuracy on ResNets20/32 on Cifar10, and 5.55% higher accuracy on ImageNet as compared to Adam; (ii) outperforms AdamW for transformers by 0.13/0.33 BLEU score on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 2.7/1.0 PPL on PTB/Wikitext-103; (iii) outperforms AdamW for SqueezeBert by 0.41 points on GLUE; and (iv) achieves 0.032% better score than Adagrad for DLRM on the Criteo Ad Kaggle dataset. Importantly, we show that the cost per iteration of ADAHESSIAN is comparable to first order methods, and that it exhibits robustness towards its hyperparameters.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Large pre-trained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated promising zero-shot performance across a wide range of domains. However, a question remains: Do TSFMs succeed solely by memorizing training patterns, or do they possess the ability to reason? While reasoning is a topic of great interest in the study of Large Language Models (LLMs), it is undefined and largely unexplored in the context of TSFMs. In this work, inspired by language modeling literature, we formally define compositional reasoning in forecasting and distinguish it from in-distribution generalization. We evaluate the reasoning and generalization capabilities of 23 popular deep learning forecasting models on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets. Additionally, through controlled studies, we systematically examine which design choices in TSFMs contribute to improved reasoning abilities. Our study yields key insights into the impact of TSFM architecture design on compositional reasoning and generalization. We find that patch-based Transformers have the best reasoning performance, closely followed by residualized MLP-based architectures, which are 97\% less computationally complex in terms of FLOPs and 86\% smaller in terms of the number of trainable parameters. Interestingly, in some zero-shot out-of-distribution scenarios, these models can outperform moving average and exponential smoothing statistical baselines trained on in-distribution data. Only a few design choices, such as the tokenization method, had a significant (negative) impact on Transformer model performance.

In recent years, the application of transformer-based models in time-series forecasting has received significant attention. While often demonstrating promising results, the transformer architecture encounters challenges in fully exploiting the temporal relations within time series data due to its attention mechanism. In this work, we design eXponential Patch (xPatch for short), a novel dual-stream architecture that utilizes exponential decomposition. Inspired by the classical exponential smoothing approaches, xPatch introduces the innovative seasonal-trend exponential decomposition module. Additionally, we propose a dual-flow architecture that consists of an MLP-based linear stream and a CNN-based non-linear stream. This model investigates the benefits of employing patching and channel-independence techniques within a non-transformer model. Finally, we develop a robust arctangent loss function and a sigmoid learning rate adjustment scheme, which prevent overfitting and boost forecasting performance. The code is available at the following repository: https://github.com/stitsyuk/xPatch.

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

We construct a time-dependent, incompressible, and uniformly-in-time Lipschitz continuous velocity field on T^3 that produces exponential growth of the magnetic energy along a subsequence of times, for every positive value of the magnetic diffusivity. Because this growth is not uniform in time but occurs only along a diverging sequence of times, we refer to the resulting mechanism as a limsup fast dynamo. Our construction is based on suitably rescaled Arnold-Beltrami-Childress (ABC) flows, each supported on long time intervals. The analysis employs perturbation theory to establish continuity of the exponential growth rate with respect to both the initial data and the diffusivity parameter. This proves the weak form of the fast dynamo conjecture formulated by Childress and Gilbert on T^3, but the considerably more challenging version proposed by Arnold on T^3 remains an open problem.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

Designing efficient and robust algorithms for accurate prediction of stock market prices is one of the most exciting challenges in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. With the exponential rate of development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively and efficiently extract, store, process and analyze high volume of stock market data with diversity in its contents. Availability of complex algorithms which can execute very fast on parallel architecture over the cloud has made it possible to achieve higher accuracy in forecasting results while reducing the time required for computation. In this paper, we use the time series data of the healthcare sector of India for the period January 2010 till December 2016. We first demonstrate a decomposition approach of the time series and then illustrate how the decomposition results provide us with useful insights into the behavior and properties exhibited by the time series. Further, based on the structural analysis of the time series, we propose six different methods of forecasting for predicting the time series index of the healthcare sector. Extensive results are provided on the performance of the forecasting methods to demonstrate their effectiveness.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Invariance and equivariance to geometrical transformations have proven to be very useful inductive biases when training (convolutional) neural network models, especially in the low-data regime. Much work has focused on the case where the symmetry group employed is compact or abelian, or both. Recent work has explored enlarging the class of transformations used to the case of Lie groups, principally through the use of their Lie algebra, as well as the group exponential and logarithm maps. The applicability of such methods to larger transformation groups is limited by the fact that depending on the group of interest G, the exponential map may not be surjective. Further limitations are encountered when G is neither compact nor abelian. Using the structure and geometry of Lie groups and their homogeneous spaces, we present a framework by which it is possible to work with such groups primarily focusing on the Lie groups G = GL^{+}(n, R) and G = SL(n, R), as well as their representation as affine transformations R^{n} rtimes G. Invariant integration as well as a global parametrization is realized by decomposing the `larger` groups into subgroups and submanifolds which can be handled individually. Under this framework, we show how convolution kernels can be parametrized to build models equivariant with respect to affine transformations. We evaluate the robustness and out-of-distribution generalisation capability of our model on the standard affine-invariant benchmark classification task, where we outperform all previous equivariant models as well as all Capsule Network proposals.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

The instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor Gamma that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift/XRT in GRBs and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau and post-plateau). We expand the analytical formalism of the "Larger-Angle Emission" model previously developed for "Power-Law" outflows to "n-Exponential" outflows (e.g. exponential with n=1 and Gaussian with n=2) and compare their abilities to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows. We assume power-law Gamma-dependences of two spectral characteristics (peak-energy and peak intensity) and find that, unlike Power-Law outflows, n-Exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100. To include all information existing in the Swift/XRT measurements of X-ray aferglows (0.3-10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 keV and 10 keV light-curves using a broken power-law emission spectrum of peak-energy and low-and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak-energy determination is found to be consistent with more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak-energy, and peak-intensity (Gamma (theta), E'_p (theta), i'_p(theta)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black-holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the E'_p (Gamma) and i'_p (Gamma) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Many machine learning tasks involve learning functions that are known to be invariant or equivariant to certain symmetries of the input data. However, it is often challenging to design neural network architectures that respect these symmetries while being expressive and computationally efficient. For example, Euclidean motion invariant/equivariant graph or point cloud neural networks. We introduce Frame Averaging (FA), a general purpose and systematic framework for adapting known (backbone) architectures to become invariant or equivariant to new symmetry types. Our framework builds on the well known group averaging operator that guarantees invariance or equivariance but is intractable. In contrast, we observe that for many important classes of symmetries, this operator can be replaced with an averaging operator over a small subset of the group elements, called a frame. We show that averaging over a frame guarantees exact invariance or equivariance while often being much simpler to compute than averaging over the entire group. Furthermore, we prove that FA-based models have maximal expressive power in a broad setting and in general preserve the expressive power of their backbone architectures. Using frame averaging, we propose a new class of universal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), universal Euclidean motion invariant point cloud networks, and Euclidean motion invariant Message Passing (MP) GNNs. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FA on several applications including point cloud normal estimation, beyond 2-WL graph separation, and n-body dynamics prediction, achieving state-of-the-art results in all of these benchmarks.

We prove new convergence rates for a generalized version of stochastic Nesterov acceleration under interpolation conditions. Unlike previous analyses, our approach accelerates any stochastic gradient method which makes sufficient progress in expectation. The proof, which proceeds using the estimating sequences framework, applies to both convex and strongly convex functions and is easily specialized to accelerated SGD under the strong growth condition. In this special case, our analysis reduces the dependence on the strong growth constant from rho to rho as compared to prior work. This improvement is comparable to a square-root of the condition number in the worst case and address criticism that guarantees for stochastic acceleration could be worse than those for SGD.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible projects, which helps to avoid risky investments and achieve long-term growth. As a result, reliable petroleum reservoir forecasting is critical for controlling and managing the effective cost of oil reservoirs. Oil production is influenced by reservoir qualities such as porosity, permeability, compressibility, fluid saturation, and other well operational parameters. Three-time series algorithms i.e., Seasonal Naive method, Exponential Smoothening and ARIMA to forecast the Distillate Fuel Oil Refinery and Propane Blender net production for the next two years.

We introduce Gravity, another algorithm for gradient-based optimization. In this paper, we explain how our novel idea change parameters to reduce the deep learning model's loss. It has three intuitive hyper-parameters that the best values for them are proposed. Also, we propose an alternative to moving average. To compare the performance of the Gravity optimizer with two common optimizers, Adam and RMSProp, five standard datasets were trained on two VGGNet models with a batch size of 128 for 100 epochs. Gravity hyper-parameters did not need to be tuned for different models. As will be explained more in the paper, to investigate the direct impact of the optimizer itself on loss reduction no overfitting prevention technique was used. The obtained results show that the Gravity optimizer has more stable performance than Adam and RMSProp and gives greater values of validation accuracy for datasets with more output classes like CIFAR-100 (Fine).

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

The performance of time series forecasting has recently been greatly improved by the introduction of transformers. In this paper, we propose a general multi-scale framework that can be applied to the state-of-the-art transformer-based time series forecasting models (FEDformer, Autoformer, etc.). By iteratively refining a forecasted time series at multiple scales with shared weights, introducing architecture adaptations, and a specially-designed normalization scheme, we are able to achieve significant performance improvements, from 5.5% to 38.5% across datasets and transformer architectures, with minimal additional computational overhead. Via detailed ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of each of our contributions across the architecture and methodology. Furthermore, our experiments on various public datasets demonstrate that the proposed improvements outperform their corresponding baseline counterparts. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/scaleformer.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Gradient descent has proven to be a powerful and effective technique for optimization in numerous machine learning applications. Recent advances in computational neuroscience have shown that learning in standard gradient descent optimization formulation is not consistent with learning in biological systems. This has opened up interesting avenues for building biologically inspired learning techniques. One such approach is inspired by Dale's law, which states that inhibitory and excitatory synapses do not swap roles during the course of learning. The resulting exponential gradient descent optimization scheme leads to log-normally distributed synaptic weights. Interestingly, the density that satisfies the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic differential equation (SDE) with geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is the log-normal density. Leveraging this connection, we start with the SDE governing geometric Brownian motion, and show that discretizing the corresponding reverse-time SDE yields a multiplicative update rule, which surprisingly, coincides with the sampling equivalent of the exponential gradient descent update founded on Dale's law. Furthermore, we propose a new formalism for multiplicative denoising score-matching, subsuming the loss function proposed by Hyvaerinen for non-negative data. Indeed, log-normally distributed data is positive and the proposed score-matching formalism turns out to be a natural fit. This allows for training of score-based models for image data and results in a novel multiplicative update scheme for sample generation starting from a log-normal density. Experimental results on MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and Kuzushiji datasets demonstrate generative capability of the new scheme. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first instance of a biologically inspired generative model employing multiplicative updates, founded on geometric Brownian motion.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Generative models like Flow Matching have achieved state-of-the-art performance but are often hindered by a computationally expensive iterative sampling process. To address this, recent work has focused on few-step or one-step generation by learning the average velocity field, which directly maps noise to data. MeanFlow, a leading method in this area, learns this field by enforcing a differential identity that connects the average and instantaneous velocities. In this work, we argue that this differential formulation is a limiting special case of a more fundamental principle. We return to the first principles of average velocity and leverage the additivity property of definite integrals. This leads us to derive a novel, purely algebraic identity we term Interval Splitting Consistency. This identity establishes a self-referential relationship for the average velocity field across different time intervals without resorting to any differential operators. Based on this principle, we introduce SplitMeanFlow, a new training framework that enforces this algebraic consistency directly as a learning objective. We formally prove that the differential identity at the core of MeanFlow is recovered by taking the limit of our algebraic consistency as the interval split becomes infinitesimal. This establishes SplitMeanFlow as a direct and more general foundation for learning average velocity fields. From a practical standpoint, our algebraic approach is significantly more efficient, as it eliminates the need for JVP computations, resulting in simpler implementation, more stable training, and broader hardware compatibility. One-step and two-step SplitMeanFlow models have been successfully deployed in large-scale speech synthesis products (such as Doubao), achieving speedups of 20x.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

Motivated by emerging applications such as live-streaming e-commerce, promotions and recommendations, we introduce and solve a general class of non-stationary multi-armed bandit problems that have the following two features: (i) the decision maker can pull and collect rewards from up to K,(ge 1) out of N different arms in each time period; (ii) the expected reward of an arm immediately drops after it is pulled, and then non-parametrically recovers as the arm's idle time increases. With the objective of maximizing the expected cumulative reward over T time periods, we design a class of ``Purely Periodic Policies'' that jointly set a period to pull each arm. For the proposed policies, we prove performance guarantees for both the offline problem and the online problems. For the offline problem when all model parameters are known, the proposed periodic policy obtains an approximation ratio that is at the order of 1-mathcal O(1/K), which is asymptotically optimal when K grows to infinity. For the online problem when the model parameters are unknown and need to be dynamically learned, we integrate the offline periodic policy with the upper confidence bound procedure to construct on online policy. The proposed online policy is proved to approximately have mathcal O(NT) regret against the offline benchmark. Our framework and policy design may shed light on broader offline planning and online learning applications with non-stationary and recovering rewards.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

We introduce InfinityStar, a unified spacetime autoregressive framework for high-resolution image and dynamic video synthesis. Building on the recent success of autoregressive modeling in both vision and language, our purely discrete approach jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies within a single architecture. This unified design naturally supports a variety of generation tasks such as text-to-image, text-to-video, image-to-video, and long interactive video synthesis via straightforward temporal autoregression. Extensive experiments demonstrate that InfinityStar scores 83.74 on VBench, outperforming all autoregressive models by large margins, even surpassing some diffusion competitors like HunyuanVideo. Without extra optimizations, our model generates a 5s, 720p video approximately 10x faster than leading diffusion-based methods. To our knowledge, InfinityStar is the first discrete autoregressive video generator capable of producing industrial level 720p videos. We release all code and models to foster further research in efficient, high-quality video generation.

The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets. The source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjieWang0606/MDMT-Public.

We introduce AiM, an autoregressive (AR) image generative model based on Mamba architecture. AiM employs Mamba, a novel state-space model characterized by its exceptional performance for long-sequence modeling with linear time complexity, to supplant the commonly utilized Transformers in AR image generation models, aiming to achieve both superior generation quality and enhanced inference speed. Unlike existing methods that adapt Mamba to handle two-dimensional signals via multi-directional scan, AiM directly utilizes the next-token prediction paradigm for autoregressive image generation. This approach circumvents the need for extensive modifications to enable Mamba to learn 2D spatial representations. By implementing straightforward yet strategically targeted modifications for visual generative tasks, we preserve Mamba's core structure, fully exploiting its efficient long-sequence modeling capabilities and scalability. We provide AiM models in various scales, with parameter counts ranging from 148M to 1.3B. On the ImageNet1K 256*256 benchmark, our best AiM model achieves a FID of 2.21, surpassing all existing AR models of comparable parameter counts and demonstrating significant competitiveness against diffusion models, with 2 to 10 times faster inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/hp-l33/AiM

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting, with patch-based input strategies offering efficiency and improved long-horizon modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and fixed lengths fracture temporal coherence by splitting natural transitions across boundaries. This naive segmentation often disrupts short-term dependencies and weakens representation learning. In response, we propose EntroPE (Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder), a novel, temporally informed framework that dynamically detects transition points via conditional entropy and dynamically places patch boundaries. This preserves temporal structure while retaining the computational benefits of patching. EntroPE consists of two key modules, namely an Entropy-based Dynamic Patcher (EDP) that applies information-theoretic criteria to locate natural temporal shifts and determine patch boundaries, and an Adaptive Patch Encoder (APE) that employs pooling and cross-attention to capture intra-patch dependencies and produce fixed-size latent representations. These embeddings are then processed by a global transformer to model inter-patch dynamics. Experiments across long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that EntroPE improves both accuracy and efficiency, establishing entropy-guided dynamic patching as a promising new paradigm for time series modeling. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/EntroPE.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

In this paper, we study the problem of principal component analysis with generative modeling assumptions, adopting a general model for the observed matrix that encompasses notable special cases, including spiked matrix recovery and phase retrieval. The key assumption is that the underlying signal lies near the range of an L-Lipschitz continuous generative model with bounded k-dimensional inputs. We propose a quadratic estimator, and show that it enjoys a statistical rate of order frac{klog L{m}}, where m is the number of samples. We also provide a near-matching algorithm-independent lower bound. Moreover, we provide a variant of the classic power method, which projects the calculated data onto the range of the generative model during each iteration. We show that under suitable conditions, this method converges exponentially fast to a point achieving the above-mentioned statistical rate. We perform experiments on various image datasets for spiked matrix and phase retrieval models, and illustrate performance gains of our method to the classic power method and the truncated power method devised for sparse principal component analysis.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

As a branch of time series forecasting, stock movement forecasting is one of the challenging problems for investors and researchers. Since Transformer was introduced to analyze financial data, many researchers have dedicated themselves to forecasting stock movement using Transformer or attention mechanisms. However, existing research mostly focuses on individual stock information but ignores stock market information and high noise in stock data. In this paper, we propose a novel method using the attention mechanism in which both stock market information and individual stock information are considered. Meanwhile, we propose a novel EMD-based algorithm for reducing short-term noise in stock data. Two randomly selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs) spanning over ten years from US stock markets are used to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed attention-based method. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the proposed attention-based method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/DurandalLee/ACEFormer.

We propose a principled and effective framework for one-step generative modeling. We introduce the notion of average velocity to characterize flow fields, in contrast to instantaneous velocity modeled by Flow Matching methods. A well-defined identity between average and instantaneous velocities is derived and used to guide neural network training. Our method, termed the MeanFlow model, is self-contained and requires no pre-training, distillation, or curriculum learning. MeanFlow demonstrates strong empirical performance: it achieves an FID of 3.43 with a single function evaluation (1-NFE) on ImageNet 256x256 trained from scratch, significantly outperforming previous state-of-the-art one-step diffusion/flow models. Our study substantially narrows the gap between one-step diffusion/flow models and their multi-step predecessors, and we hope it will motivate future research to revisit the foundations of these powerful models.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.