Daily Papers

Interpretable machine learning has exploded as an area of interest over the last decade, sparked by the rise of increasingly large datasets and deep neural networks. Simultaneously, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide array of tasks, offering a chance to rethink opportunities in interpretable machine learning. Notably, the capability to explain in natural language allows LLMs to expand the scale and complexity of patterns that can be given to a human. However, these new capabilities raise new challenges, such as hallucinated explanations and immense computational costs. In this position paper, we start by reviewing existing methods to evaluate the emerging field of LLM interpretation (both interpreting LLMs and using LLMs for explanation). We contend that, despite their limitations, LLMs hold the opportunity to redefine interpretability with a more ambitious scope across many applications, including in auditing LLMs themselves. We highlight two emerging research priorities for LLM interpretation: using LLMs to directly analyze new datasets and to generate interactive explanations.

Recent advances in multi-modal Large Language Models (M-LLMs) have demonstrated a powerful ability to synthesize implicit information from disparate sources, including images and text. These resourceful data from social media also introduce a significant and underexplored privacy risk: the inference of sensitive personal attributes from seemingly daily media content. However, the lack of benchmarks and comprehensive evaluations of state-of-the-art M-LLM capabilities hinders the research of private attribute profiling on social media. Accordingly, we propose (1) PRISM, the first multi-modal, multi-dimensional and fine-grained synthesized dataset incorporating a comprehensive privacy landscape and dynamic user history; (2) an Efficient evaluation framework that measures the cross-modal privacy inference capabilities of advanced M-LLM. Specifically, PRISM is a large-scale synthetic benchmark designed to evaluate cross-modal privacy risks. Its key feature is 12 sensitive attribute labels across a diverse set of multi-modal profiles, which enables targeted privacy analysis. These profiles are generated via a sophisticated LLM agentic workflow, governed by a prior distribution to ensure they realistically mimic social media users. Additionally, we propose a Multi-Agent Inference Framework that leverages a pipeline of specialized LLMs to enhance evaluation capabilities. We evaluate the inference capabilities of six leading M-LLMs (Qwen, Gemini, GPT-4o, GLM, Doubao, and Grok) on PRISM. The comparison with human performance reveals that these MLLMs significantly outperform in accuracy and efficiency, highlighting the threat of potential privacy risks and the urgent need for robust defenses.

As large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 and Llama 3 become integral to educational contexts, concerns are mounting over the cultural biases, power imbalances, and ethical limitations embedded within these technologies. Though generative AI tools aim to enhance learning experiences, they often reflect values rooted in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) cultural paradigms, potentially sidelining diverse global perspectives. This paper proposes a framework to assess and mitigate cultural bias within LLMs through the lens of applied multiplexity. Multiplexity, inspired by Senturk et al. and rooted in Islamic and other wisdom traditions, emphasizes the coexistence of diverse cultural viewpoints, supporting a multi-layered epistemology that integrates both empirical sciences and normative values. Our analysis reveals that LLMs frequently exhibit cultural polarization, with biases appearing in both overt responses and subtle contextual cues. To address inherent biases and incorporate multiplexity in LLMs, we propose two strategies: Contextually-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, which embed multiplex principles directly into the system prompt, influencing LLM outputs at a foundational level and independent of individual prompts, and Multi-Agent System (MAS)-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, where multiple LLM agents, each representing distinct cultural viewpoints, collaboratively generate a balanced, synthesized response. Our findings demonstrate that as mitigation strategies evolve from contextual prompting to MAS-implementation, cultural inclusivity markedly improves, evidenced by a significant rise in the Perspectives Distribution Score (PDS) and a PDS Entropy increase from 3.25\% at baseline to 98\% with the MAS-Implemented Multiplex LLMs. Sentiment analysis further shows a shift towards positive sentiment across cultures,...

As Large Language Models (LLMs) gain wider adoption in various contexts, it becomes crucial to ensure they are reasonably safe, consistent, and reliable for an application at hand. This may require probing or auditing them. Probing LLMs with varied iterations of a single question could reveal potential inconsistencies in their knowledge or functionality. However, a tool for performing such audits with simple workflow and low technical threshold is lacking. In this demo, we introduce "AuditLLM," a novel tool designed to evaluate the performance of various LLMs in a methodical way. AuditLLM's core functionality lies in its ability to test a given LLM by auditing it using multiple probes generated from a single question, thereby identifying any inconsistencies in the model's understanding or operation. A reasonably robust, reliable, and consistent LLM should output semantically similar responses for a question asked differently or by different people. Based on this assumption, AuditLLM produces easily interpretable results regarding the LLM's consistencies from a single question that the user enters. A certain level of inconsistency has been shown to be an indicator of potential bias, hallucinations, and other issues. One could then use the output of AuditLLM to further investigate issues with the aforementioned LLM. To facilitate demonstration and practical uses, AuditLLM offers two key modes: (1) Live mode which allows instant auditing of LLMs by analyzing responses to real-time queries; (2) Batch mode which facilitates comprehensive LLM auditing by processing multiple queries at once for in-depth analysis. This tool is beneficial for both researchers and general users, as it enhances our understanding of LLMs' capabilities in generating responses, using a standardized auditing platform.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for factual tasks such as "What treats asthma?" or "What is the capital of Latvia?". However, it remains unclear how stably LLMs encode distinctions between true, false, and neither-true-nor-false content in their internal probabilistic representations. We introduce representational stability as the robustness of an LLM's veracity representations to perturbations in the operational definition of truth. We assess representational stability by (i) training a linear probe on an LLM's activations to separate true from not-true statements and (ii) measuring how its learned decision boundary shifts under controlled label changes. Using activations from sixteen open-source models and three factual domains, we compare two types of neither statements. The first are fact-like assertions about entities we believe to be absent from any training data. We call these unfamiliar neither statements. The second are nonfactual claims drawn from well-known fictional contexts. We call these familiar neither statements. The unfamiliar statements induce the largest boundary shifts, producing up to 40% flipped truth judgements in fragile domains (such as word definitions), while familiar fictional statements remain more coherently clustered and yield smaller changes (leq 8.2%). These results suggest that representational stability stems more from epistemic familiarity than from linguistic form. More broadly, our approach provides a diagnostic for auditing and training LLMs to preserve coherent truth assignments under semantic uncertainty, rather than optimizing for output accuracy alone.

Prompt caching in large language models (LLMs) results in data-dependent timing variations: cached prompts are processed faster than non-cached prompts. These timing differences introduce the risk of side-channel timing attacks. For example, if the cache is shared across users, an attacker could identify cached prompts from fast API response times to learn information about other users' prompts. Because prompt caching may cause privacy leakage, transparency around the caching policies of API providers is important. To this end, we develop and conduct statistical audits to detect prompt caching in real-world LLM API providers. We detect global cache sharing across users in seven API providers, including OpenAI, resulting in potential privacy leakage about users' prompts. Timing variations due to prompt caching can also result in leakage of information about model architecture. Namely, we find evidence that OpenAI's embedding model is a decoder-only Transformer, which was previously not publicly known.

Conventional evaluation methods for multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) lack interpretability and are often insufficient to fully disclose significant capability gaps across models. To address this, we introduce AuditDM, an automated framework that actively discovers and rectifies MLLM failure modes by auditing their divergence. AuditDM fine-tunes an MLLM as an auditor via reinforcement learning to generate challenging questions and counterfactual images that maximize disagreement among target models. Once trained, the auditor uncovers diverse, interpretable exemplars that reveal model weaknesses and serve as annotation-free data for rectification. When applied to SoTA models like Gemma-3 and PaliGemma-2, AuditDM discovers more than 20 distinct failure types. Fine-tuning on these discoveries consistently improves all models across 16 benchmarks, and enables a 3B model to surpass its 28B counterpart. Our results suggest that as data scaling hits diminishing returns, targeted model auditing offers an effective path to model diagnosis and improvement.

To reduce development overhead and enable seamless integration between potential components comprising any given generative AI application, the Model Context Protocol (MCP) (Anthropic, 2024) has recently been released and subsequently widely adopted. The MCP is an open protocol that standardizes API calls to large language models (LLMs), data sources, and agentic tools. By connecting multiple MCP servers, each defined with a set of tools, resources, and prompts, users are able to define automated workflows fully driven by LLMs. However, we show that the current MCP design carries a wide range of security risks for end users. In particular, we demonstrate that industry-leading LLMs may be coerced into using MCP tools to compromise an AI developer's system through various attacks, such as malicious code execution, remote access control, and credential theft. To proactively mitigate these and related attacks, we introduce a safety auditing tool, MCPSafetyScanner, the first agentic tool to assess the security of an arbitrary MCP server. MCPScanner uses several agents to (a) automatically determine adversarial samples given an MCP server's tools and resources; (b) search for related vulnerabilities and remediations based on those samples; and (c) generate a security report detailing all findings. Our work highlights serious security issues with general-purpose agentic workflows while also providing a proactive tool to audit MCP server safety and address detected vulnerabilities before deployment. The described MCP server auditing tool, MCPSafetyScanner, is freely available at: https://github.com/johnhalloran321/mcpSafetyScanner

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become more pervasive across various users and scenarios, identifying potential issues when using these models becomes essential. Examples of such issues include: bias, inconsistencies, and hallucination. Although auditing the LLM for these problems is often warranted, such a process is neither easy nor accessible for most. An effective method is to probe the LLM using different versions of the same question. This could expose inconsistencies in its knowledge or operation, indicating potential for bias or hallucination. However, to operationalize this auditing method at scale, we need an approach to create those probes reliably and automatically. In this paper we propose the LLMAuditor framework which is an automatic, and scalable solution, where one uses a different LLM along with human-in-the-loop (HIL). This approach offers verifiability and transparency, while avoiding circular reliance on the same LLM, and increasing scientific rigor and generalizability. Specifically, LLMAuditor includes two phases of verification using humans: standardized evaluation criteria to verify responses, and a structured prompt template to generate desired probes. A case study using questions from the TruthfulQA dataset demonstrates that we can generate a reliable set of probes from one LLM that can be used to audit inconsistencies in a different LLM. This process is enhanced by our structured prompt template with HIL, which not only boosts the reliability of our approach in auditing but also yields the delivery of less hallucinated results. The novelty of our research stems from the development of a comprehensive, general-purpose framework that includes a HIL verified prompt template for auditing responses generated by LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLM) have made significant advances in the recent past becoming more mainstream in Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled human-facing applications. However, LLMs often generate stereotypical output inherited from historical data, amplifying societal biases and raising ethical concerns. This work introduces i) the Multi-Grain Stereotype Dataset, which includes 52,751 instances of gender, race, profession and religion stereotypic text and ii) a novel stereotype classifier for English text. We design several experiments to rigorously test the proposed model trained on the novel dataset. Our experiments show that training the model in a multi-class setting can outperform the one-vs-all binary counterpart. Consistent feature importance signals from different eXplainable AI tools demonstrate that the new model exploits relevant text features. We utilise the newly created model to assess the stereotypic behaviour of the popular GPT family of models and observe the reduction of bias over time. In summary, our work establishes a robust and practical framework for auditing and evaluating the stereotypic bias in LLM.

With the widespread availability of LLMs since the release of ChatGPT and increased public scrutiny, commercial model development appears to have focused their efforts on 'safety' training concerning legal liabilities at the expense of social impact evaluation. This mimics a similar trend which we could observe for search engine autocompletion some years prior. We draw on scholarship from NLP and search engine auditing and present a novel evaluation task in the style of autocompletion prompts to assess stereotyping in LLMs. We assess LLMs by using four metrics, namely refusal rates, toxicity, sentiment and regard, with and without safety system prompts. Our findings indicate an improvement to stereotyping outputs with the system prompt, but overall a lack of attention by LLMs under study to certain harms classified as toxic, particularly for prompts about peoples/ethnicities and sexual orientation. Mentions of intersectional identities trigger a disproportionate amount of stereotyping. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings about stereotyping harms in light of the coming intermingling of LLMs and search and the choice of stereotyping mitigation policy to adopt. We address model builders, academics, NLP practitioners and policy makers, calling for accountability and awareness concerning stereotyping harms, be it for training data curation, leader board design and usage, or social impact measurement.

Refusals - instances where large language models (LLMs) decline or fail to fully execute user instructions - are crucial for both AI safety and AI capabilities and the reduction of hallucinations in particular. These behaviors are learned during post-training, especially in instruction fine-tuning (IFT) and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). However, existing taxonomies and evaluation datasets for refusals are inadequate, often focusing solely on should-not-related (instead of cannot-related) categories, and lacking tools for auditing refusal content in black-box LLM outputs. We present a comprehensive framework for classifying LLM refusals: (a) a taxonomy of 16 refusal categories, (b) a human-annotated dataset of over 8,600 instances from publicly available IFT and RLHF datasets, (c) a synthetic dataset with 8,000 examples for each refusal category, and (d) classifiers trained for refusal classification. Our work enables precise auditing of refusal behaviors in black-box LLMs and automatic analyses of refusal patterns in large IFT and RLHF datasets. This facilitates the strategic adjustment of LLM refusals, contributing to the development of more safe and reliable LLMs.

Code auditing is the process of reviewing code with the aim of identifying bugs. Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising capabilities for this task without requiring compilation, while also supporting user-friendly customization. However, auditing a code repository with LLMs poses significant challenges: limited context windows and hallucinations can degrade the quality of bug reports, and analyzing large-scale repositories incurs substantial time and token costs, hindering efficiency and scalability. This work introduces an LLM-based agent, RepoAudit, designed to perform autonomous repository-level code auditing. Equipped with agent memory, RepoAudit explores the codebase on demand by analyzing data-flow facts along feasible program paths within individual functions. It further incorporates a validator module to mitigate hallucinations by verifying data-flow facts and checking the satisfiability of path conditions associated with potential bugs, thereby reducing false positives. RepoAudit detects 40 true bugs across 15 real-world benchmark projects with a precision of 78.43%, requiring on average only 0.44 hours and $2.54 per project. Also, it detects 185 new bugs in high-profile projects, among which 174 have been confirmed or fixed. We have open-sourced RepoAudit at https://github.com/PurCL/RepoAudit.

The complexity of the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the hierarchical structure of eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) filings make financial auditing increasingly difficult to automate and verify. While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in unstructured text understanding, their ability to reason over structured, interdependent, and taxonomy-driven financial documents remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we introduce FinAuditing, the first taxonomy-aligned, structure-aware, multi-document benchmark for evaluating LLMs on financial auditing tasks. Built from real US-GAAP-compliant XBRL filings, FinAuditing defines three complementary subtasks, FinSM for semantic consistency, FinRE for relational consistency, and FinMR for numerical consistency, each targeting a distinct aspect of structured auditing reasoning. We further propose a unified evaluation framework integrating retrieval, classification, and reasoning metrics across these subtasks. Extensive zero-shot experiments on 13 state-of-the-art LLMs reveal that current models perform inconsistently across semantic, relational, and mathematical dimensions, with accuracy drops of up to 60-90% when reasoning over hierarchical multi-document structures. Our findings expose the systematic limitations of modern LLMs in taxonomy-grounded financial reasoning and establish FinAuditing as a foundation for developing trustworthy, structure-aware, and regulation-aligned financial intelligence systems. The benchmark dataset is available at Hugging Face.

Smart contracts are decentralized applications built atop blockchains like Ethereum. Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) have potential in auditing smart contracts, but the state-of-the-art indicates that even GPT-4 can achieve only 30% precision (when both decision and justification are correct). This is likely because off-the-shelf LLMs were primarily pre-trained on a general text/code corpus and not fine-tuned on the specific domain of Solidity smart contract auditing. In this paper, we propose TrustLLM, a general framework that combines fine-tuning and LLM-based agents for intuitive smart contract auditing with justifications. Specifically, TrustLLM is inspired by the observation that expert human auditors first perceive what could be wrong and then perform a detailed analysis of the code to identify the cause. As such, TrustLLM employs a two-stage fine-tuning approach: it first tunes a Detector model to make decisions and then tunes a Reasoner model to generate causes of vulnerabilities. However, fine-tuning alone faces challenges in accurately identifying the optimal cause of a vulnerability. Therefore, we introduce two LLM-based agents, the Ranker and Critic, to iteratively select and debate the most suitable cause of vulnerability based on the output of the fine-tuned Reasoner model. To evaluate TrustLLM, we collected a balanced dataset with 1,734 positive and 1,810 negative samples to fine-tune TrustLLM. We then compared it with traditional fine-tuned models (CodeBERT, GraphCodeBERT, CodeT5, and UnixCoder) as well as prompt learning-based LLMs (GPT4, GPT-3.5, and CodeLlama-13b/34b). On a dataset of 263 real smart contract vulnerabilities, TrustLLM achieves an F1 score of 91.21% and an accuracy of 91.11%. The causes generated by TrustLLM achieved a consistency of about 38% compared to the ground truth causes.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via black-box APIs introduces a significant trust challenge: users pay for services based on advertised model capabilities (e.g., size, performance), but providers may covertly substitute the specified model with a cheaper, lower-quality alternative to reduce operational costs. This lack of transparency undermines fairness, erodes trust, and complicates reliable benchmarking. Detecting such substitutions is difficult due to the black-box nature, typically limiting interaction to input-output queries. This paper formalizes the problem of model substitution detection in LLM APIs. We systematically evaluate existing verification techniques, including output-based statistical tests, benchmark evaluations, and log probability analysis, under various realistic attack scenarios like model quantization, randomized substitution, and benchmark evasion. Our findings reveal the limitations of methods relying solely on text outputs, especially against subtle or adaptive attacks. While log probability analysis offers stronger guarantees when available, its accessibility is often limited. We conclude by discussing the potential of hardware-based solutions like Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) as a pathway towards provable model integrity, highlighting the trade-offs between security, performance, and provider adoption. Code is available at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/llm-api-audit

Conversational interfaces powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently become a popular way to obtain feedback during document editing. However, standard chat-based conversational interfaces do not support transparency and verifiability of the editing changes that they suggest. To give the author more agency when editing with an LLM, we present InkSync, an editing interface that suggests executable edits directly within the document being edited. Because LLMs are known to introduce factual errors, Inksync also supports a 3-stage approach to mitigate this risk: Warn authors when a suggested edit introduces new information, help authors Verify the new information's accuracy through external search, and allow an auditor to perform an a-posteriori verification by Auditing the document via a trace of all auto-generated content. Two usability studies confirm the effectiveness of InkSync's components when compared to standard LLM-based chat interfaces, leading to more accurate, more efficient editing, and improved user experience.

Commercial LLM services often conceal internal reasoning traces while still charging users for every generated token, including those from hidden intermediate steps, raising concerns of token inflation and potential overbilling. This gap underscores the urgent need for reliable token auditing, yet achieving it is far from straightforward: cryptographic verification (e.g., hash-based signature) offers little assurance when providers control the entire execution pipeline, while user-side prediction struggles with the inherent variance of reasoning LLMs, where token usage fluctuates across domains and prompt styles. To bridge this gap, we present PALACE (Predictive Auditing of LLM APIs via Reasoning Token Count Estimation), a user-side framework that estimates hidden reasoning token counts from prompt-answer pairs without access to internal traces. PALACE introduces a GRPO-augmented adaptation module with a lightweight domain router, enabling dynamic calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and mitigating variance in token usage patterns. Experiments on math, coding, medical, and general reasoning benchmarks show that PALACE achieves low relative error and strong prediction accuracy, supporting both fine-grained cost auditing and inflation detection. Taken together, PALACE represents an important first step toward standardized predictive auditing, offering a practical path to greater transparency, accountability, and user trust.

Large language models (LLMs) mark a key shift in natural language processing (NLP), having advanced text generation, translation, and domain-specific reasoning. Closed-source models like GPT-4, powered by proprietary datasets and extensive computational resources, lead with state-of-the-art performance today. However, they face criticism for their "black box" nature and for limiting accessibility in a manner that hinders reproducibility and equitable AI development. By contrast, open-source initiatives like LLaMA and BLOOM prioritize democratization through community-driven development and computational efficiency. These models have significantly reduced performance gaps, particularly in linguistic diversity and domain-specific applications, while providing accessible tools for global researchers and developers. Notably, both paradigms rely on foundational architectural innovations, such as the Transformer framework by Vaswani et al. (2017). Closed-source models excel by scaling effectively, while open-source models adapt to real-world applications in underrepresented languages and domains. Techniques like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and instruction-tuning datasets enable open-source models to achieve competitive results despite limited resources. To be sure, the tension between closed-source and open-source approaches underscores a broader debate on transparency versus proprietary control in AI. Ethical considerations further highlight this divide. Closed-source systems restrict external scrutiny, while open-source models promote reproducibility and collaboration but lack standardized auditing documentation frameworks to mitigate biases. Hybrid approaches that leverage the strengths of both paradigms are likely to shape the future of LLM innovation, ensuring accessibility, competitive technical performance, and ethical deployment.

Style representation learning builds content-independent representations of author style in text. Stylometry, the analysis of style in text, is often performed by expert forensic linguists and no large dataset of stylometric annotations exists for training. Current style representation learning uses neural methods to disentangle style from content to create style vectors, however, these approaches result in uninterpretable representations, complicating their usage in downstream applications like authorship attribution where auditing and explainability is critical. In this work, we use prompting to perform stylometry on a large number of texts to create a synthetic dataset and train human-interpretable style representations we call LISA embeddings. We release our synthetic stylometry dataset and our interpretable style models as resources.

LLMs for clinical decision support often fail under small but clinically meaningful input shifts such as masking a symptom or negating a finding, despite high performance on static benchmarks. These reasoning failures frequently go undetected by standard NLP metrics, which are insensitive to latent representation shifts that drive diagnosis instability. We propose a geometry-aware evaluation framework, LAPD (Latent Agentic Perturbation Diagnostics), which systematically probes the latent robustness of clinical LLMs under structured adversarial edits. Within this framework, we introduce Latent Diagnosis Flip Rate (LDFR), a model-agnostic diagnostic signal that captures representational instability when embeddings cross decision boundaries in PCA-reduced latent space. Clinical notes are generated using a structured prompting pipeline grounded in diagnostic reasoning, then perturbed along four axes: masking, negation, synonym replacement, and numeric variation to simulate common ambiguities and omissions. We compute LDFR across both foundation and clinical LLMs, finding that latent fragility emerges even under minimal surface-level changes. Finally, we validate our findings on 90 real clinical notes from the DiReCT benchmark (MIMIC-IV), confirming the generalizability of LDFR beyond synthetic settings. Our results reveal a persistent gap between surface robustness and semantic stability, underscoring the importance of geometry-aware auditing in safety-critical clinical AI.

The memorization of sensitive and personally identifiable information (PII) by large language models (LLMs) poses growing privacy risks as models scale and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. Existing efforts to study sensitive and PII data memorization and develop mitigation strategies are hampered by the absence of comprehensive, realistic, and ethically sourced datasets reflecting the diversity of sensitive information found on the web. We introduce PANORAMA - Profile-based Assemblage for Naturalistic Online Representation and Attribute Memorization Analysis, a large-scale synthetic corpus of 384,789 samples derived from 9,674 synthetic profiles designed to closely emulate the distribution, variety, and context of PII and sensitive data as it naturally occurs in online environments. Our data generation pipeline begins with the construction of internally consistent, multi-attribute human profiles using constrained selection to reflect real-world demographics such as education, health attributes, financial status, etc. Using a combination of zero-shot prompting and OpenAI o3-mini, we generate diverse content types - including wiki-style articles, social media posts, forum discussions, online reviews, comments, and marketplace listings - each embedding realistic, contextually appropriate PII and other sensitive information. We validate the utility of PANORAMA by fine-tuning the Mistral-7B model on 1x, 5x, 10x, and 25x data replication rates with a subset of data and measure PII memorization rates - revealing not only consistent increases with repetition but also variation across content types, highlighting PANORAMA's ability to model how memorization risks differ by context. Our dataset and code are publicly available, providing a much-needed resource for privacy risk assessment, model auditing, and the development of privacy-preserving LLMs.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) pose a critical privacy threat to fine-tuned large language models (LLMs), especially when models are adapted to domain-specific tasks using sensitive data. While prior black-box MIA techniques rely on confidence scores or token likelihoods, these signals are often entangled with a sample's intrinsic properties - such as content difficulty or rarity - leading to poor generalization and low signal-to-noise ratios. In this paper, we propose ICP-MIA, a novel MIA framework grounded in the theory of training dynamics, particularly the phenomenon of diminishing returns during optimization. We introduce the Optimization Gap as a fundamental signal of membership: at convergence, member samples exhibit minimal remaining loss-reduction potential, while non-members retain significant potential for further optimization. To estimate this gap in a black-box setting, we propose In-Context Probing (ICP), a training-free method that simulates fine-tuning-like behavior via strategically constructed input contexts. We propose two probing strategies: reference-data-based (using semantically similar public samples) and self-perturbation (via masking or generation). Experiments on three tasks and multiple LLMs show that ICP-MIA significantly outperforms prior black-box MIAs, particularly at low false positive rates. We further analyze how reference data alignment, model type, PEFT configurations, and training schedules affect attack effectiveness. Our findings establish ICP-MIA as a practical and theoretically grounded framework for auditing privacy risks in deployed LLMs.