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Dec 31

LeMo: Enabling LEss Token Involvement for MOre Context Fine-tuning

The escalating demand for long-context applications has intensified the necessity of extending the LLM context windows. Despite recent fine-tuning approaches successfully expanding context lengths, their high memory footprints, especially for activations, present a critical practical limitation. Current parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods prioritize reducing parameter update overhead over addressing activation memory constraints. Similarly, existing sparsity mechanisms improve computational efficiency but overlook activation memory optimization due to the phenomenon of Shadowy Activation. In this paper, we propose LeMo, the first LLM fine-tuning system that explores and exploits a new token-level sparsity mechanism inherent in long-context scenarios, termed Contextual Token Sparsity. LeMo minimizes redundant token involvement by assessing the informativeness of token embeddings while preserving model accuracy. Specifically, LeMo introduces three key techniques: (1) Token Elimination, dynamically identifying and excluding redundant tokens across varying inputs and layers. (2) Pattern Prediction, utilizing well-trained predictors to approximate token sparsity patterns with minimal overhead. (3) Kernel Optimization, employing permutation-free and segment-based strategies to boost system performance. We implement LeMo as an end-to-end fine-tuning system compatible with various LLM architectures and other optimization techniques. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that LeMo reduces memory consumption by up to 1.93x and achieves up to 1.36x speedups, outperforming state-of-the-art fine-tuning systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 15

VisioFirm: Cross-Platform AI-assisted Annotation Tool for Computer Vision

AI models rely on annotated data to learn pattern and perform prediction. Annotation is usually a labor-intensive step that require associating labels ranging from a simple classification label to more complex tasks such as object detection, oriented bounding box estimation, and instance segmentation. Traditional tools often require extensive manual input, limiting scalability for large datasets. To address this, we introduce VisioFirm, an open-source web application designed to streamline image labeling through AI-assisted automation. VisioFirm integrates state-of-the-art foundation models into an interface with a filtering pipeline to reduce human-in-the-loop efforts. This hybrid approach employs CLIP combined with pre-trained detectors like Ultralytics models for common classes and zero-shot models such as Grounding DINO for custom labels, generating initial annotations with low-confidence thresholding to maximize recall. Through this framework, when tested on COCO-type of classes, initial prediction have been proven to be mostly correct though the users can refine these via interactive tools supporting bounding boxes, oriented bounding boxes, and polygons. Additionally, VisioFirm has on-the-fly segmentation powered by Segment Anything accelerated through WebGPU for browser-side efficiency. The tool supports multiple export formats (YOLO, COCO, Pascal VOC, CSV) and operates offline after model caching, enhancing accessibility. VisioFirm demonstrates up to 90\% reduction in manual effort through benchmarks on diverse datasets, while maintaining high annotation accuracy via clustering of connected CLIP-based disambiguate components and IoU-graph for redundant detection suppression. VisioFirm can be accessed from https://github.com/OschAI/VisioFirm{https://github.com/OschAI/VisioFirm}.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 4

Right Prediction, Wrong Reasoning: Uncovering LLM Misalignment in RA Disease Diagnosis

Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising pre-screening tool, improving early disease detection and providing enhanced healthcare access for underprivileged communities. The early diagnosis of various diseases continues to be a significant challenge in healthcare, primarily due to the nonspecific nature of early symptoms, the shortage of expert medical practitioners, and the need for prolonged clinical evaluations, all of which can delay treatment and adversely affect patient outcomes. With impressive accuracy in prediction across a range of diseases, LLMs have the potential to revolutionize clinical pre-screening and decision-making for various medical conditions. In this work, we study the diagnostic capability of LLMs for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) with real world patients data. Patient data was collected alongside diagnoses from medical experts, and the performance of LLMs was evaluated in comparison to expert diagnoses for RA disease prediction. We notice an interesting pattern in disease diagnosis and find an unexpected misalignment between prediction and explanation. We conduct a series of multi-round analyses using different LLM agents. The best-performing model accurately predicts rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diseases approximately 95\% of the time. However, when medical experts evaluated the reasoning generated by the model, they found that nearly 68\% of the reasoning was incorrect. This study highlights a clear misalignment between LLMs high prediction accuracy and its flawed reasoning, raising important questions about relying on LLM explanations in clinical settings. LLMs provide incorrect reasoning to arrive at the correct answer for RA disease diagnosis.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 9

MamNet: A Novel Hybrid Model for Time-Series Forecasting and Frequency Pattern Analysis in Network Traffic

The abnormal fluctuations in network traffic may indicate potential security threats or system failures. Therefore, efficient network traffic prediction and anomaly detection methods are crucial for network security and traffic management. This paper proposes a novel network traffic prediction and anomaly detection model, MamNet, which integrates time-domain modeling and frequency-domain feature extraction. The model first captures the long-term dependencies of network traffic through the Mamba module (time-domain modeling), and then identifies periodic fluctuations in the traffic using Fourier Transform (frequency-domain feature extraction). In the feature fusion layer, multi-scale information is integrated to enhance the model's ability to detect network traffic anomalies. Experiments conducted on the UNSW-NB15 and CAIDA datasets demonstrate that MamNet outperforms several recent mainstream models in terms of accuracy, recall, and F1-Score. Specifically, it achieves an improvement of approximately 2% to 4% in detection performance for complex traffic patterns and long-term trend detection. The results indicate that MamNet effectively captures anomalies in network traffic across different time scales and is suitable for anomaly detection tasks in network security and traffic management. Future work could further optimize the model structure by incorporating external network event information, thereby improving the model's adaptability and stability in complex network environments.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 30

EqMotion: Equivariant Multi-agent Motion Prediction with Invariant Interaction Reasoning

Learning to predict agent motions with relationship reasoning is important for many applications. In motion prediction tasks, maintaining motion equivariance under Euclidean geometric transformations and invariance of agent interaction is a critical and fundamental principle. However, such equivariance and invariance properties are overlooked by most existing methods. To fill this gap, we propose EqMotion, an efficient equivariant motion prediction model with invariant interaction reasoning. To achieve motion equivariance, we propose an equivariant geometric feature learning module to learn a Euclidean transformable feature through dedicated designs of equivariant operations. To reason agent's interactions, we propose an invariant interaction reasoning module to achieve a more stable interaction modeling. To further promote more comprehensive motion features, we propose an invariant pattern feature learning module to learn an invariant pattern feature, which cooperates with the equivariant geometric feature to enhance network expressiveness. We conduct experiments for the proposed model on four distinct scenarios: particle dynamics, molecule dynamics, human skeleton motion prediction and pedestrian trajectory prediction. Experimental results show that our method is not only generally applicable, but also achieves state-of-the-art prediction performances on all the four tasks, improving by 24.0/30.1/8.6/9.2%. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/EqMotion.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 20, 2023

Integrating Pattern- and Fact-based Fake News Detection via Model Preference Learning

To defend against fake news, researchers have developed various methods based on texts. These methods can be grouped as 1) pattern-based methods, which focus on shared patterns among fake news posts rather than the claim itself; and 2) fact-based methods, which retrieve from external sources to verify the claim's veracity without considering patterns. The two groups of methods, which have different preferences of textual clues, actually play complementary roles in detecting fake news. However, few works consider their integration. In this paper, we study the problem of integrating pattern- and fact-based models into one framework via modeling their preference differences, i.e., making the pattern- and fact-based models focus on respective preferred parts in a post and mitigate interference from non-preferred parts as possible. To this end, we build a Preference-aware Fake News Detection Framework (Pref-FEND), which learns the respective preferences of pattern- and fact-based models for joint detection. We first design a heterogeneous dynamic graph convolutional network to generate the respective preference maps, and then use these maps to guide the joint learning of pattern- and fact-based models for final prediction. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that Pref-FEND effectively captures model preferences and improves the performance of models based on patterns, facts, or both.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 23, 2021

Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently been achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of pattern-recognition tasks, most notably visual classification problems. Given that DNNs are now able to classify objects in images with near-human-level performance, questions naturally arise as to what differences remain between computer and human vision. A recent study revealed that changing an image (e.g. of a lion) in a way imperceptible to humans can cause a DNN to label the image as something else entirely (e.g. mislabeling a lion a library). Here we show a related result: it is easy to produce images that are completely unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs believe to be recognizable objects with 99.99% confidence (e.g. labeling with certainty that white noise static is a lion). Specifically, we take convolutional neural networks trained to perform well on either the ImageNet or MNIST datasets and then find images with evolutionary algorithms or gradient ascent that DNNs label with high confidence as belonging to each dataset class. It is possible to produce images totally unrecognizable to human eyes that DNNs believe with near certainty are familiar objects, which we call "fooling images" (more generally, fooling examples). Our results shed light on interesting differences between human vision and current DNNs, and raise questions about the generality of DNN computer vision.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 5, 2014

Evaluation of Popular XAI Applied to Clinical Prediction Models: Can They be Trusted?

The absence of transparency and explainability hinders the clinical adoption of Machine learning (ML) algorithms. Although various methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) have been suggested, there is a lack of literature that delves into their practicality and assesses them based on criteria that could foster trust in clinical environments. To address this gap this study evaluates two popular XAI methods used for explaining predictive models in the healthcare context in terms of whether they (i) generate domain-appropriate representation, i.e. coherent with respect to the application task, (ii) impact clinical workflow and (iii) are consistent. To that end, explanations generated at the cohort and patient levels were analysed. The paper reports the first benchmarking of the XAI methods applied to risk prediction models obtained by evaluating the concordance between generated explanations and the trigger of a future clinical deterioration episode recorded by the data collection system. We carried out an analysis using two Electronic Medical Records (EMR) datasets sourced from Australian major hospitals. The findings underscore the limitations of state-of-the-art XAI methods in the clinical context and their potential benefits. We discuss these limitations and contribute to the theoretical development of trustworthy XAI solutions where clinical decision support guides the choice of intervention by suggesting the pattern or drivers for clinical deterioration in the future.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 20, 2023

Augmenting LLMs for General Time Series Understanding and Prediction

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1

SynTSBench: Rethinking Temporal Pattern Learning in Deep Learning Models for Time Series

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 23

AgentMove: A Large Language Model based Agentic Framework for Zero-shot Next Location Prediction

Next location prediction plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Recently, due to the limitation of existing deep learning methods, attempts have been made to apply large language models (LLMs) to zero-shot next location prediction task. However, they directly generate the final output using LLMs without systematic design, which limits the potential of LLMs to uncover complex mobility patterns and underestimates their extensive reserve of global geospatial knowledge. In this paper, we introduce AgentMove, a systematic agentic prediction framework to achieve generalized next location prediction. In AgentMove, we first decompose the mobility prediction task and design specific modules to complete them, including spatial-temporal memory for individual mobility pattern mining, world knowledge generator for modeling the effects of urban structure and collective knowledge extractor for capturing the shared patterns among population. Finally, we combine the results of three modules and conduct a reasoning step to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments utilizing mobility data from two distinct sources reveal that AgentMove surpasses the leading baseline by 3.33% to 8.57% across 8 out of 12 metrics and it shows robust predictions with various LLMs as base and also less geographical bias across cities. Our codes are available via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentMove.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 25, 2024

Liquid Neural Network-based Adaptive Learning vs. Incremental Learning for Link Load Prediction amid Concept Drift due to Network Failures

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 8, 2024

Ultralytics YOLO Evolution: An Overview of YOLO26, YOLO11, YOLOv8 and YOLOv5 Object Detectors for Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Ultralytics YOLO(You Only Look Once) family of object detectors, focusing the architectural evolution, benchmarking, deployment perspectives, and future challenges. The review begins with the most recent release, YOLO26 (YOLOv26), which introduces key innovations including Distribution Focal Loss (DFL) removal, native NMS-free inference, Progressive Loss Balancing (ProgLoss), Small-Target-Aware Label Assignment (STAL), and the MuSGD optimizer for stable training. The progression is then traced through YOLO11, with its hybrid task assignment and efficiency-focused modules; YOLOv8, which advanced with a decoupled detection head and anchor-free predictions; and YOLOv5, which established the modular PyTorch foundation that enabled modern YOLO development. Benchmarking on the MS COCO dataset provides a detailed quantitative comparison of YOLOv5, YOLOv8, YOLO11, and YOLO26, alongside cross-comparisons with YOLOv12, YOLOv13, RT-DETR, and DEIM. Metrics including precision, recall, F1 score, mean Average Precision, and inference speed are analyzed to highlight trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency. Deployment and application perspectives are further discussed, covering export formats, quantization strategies, and real-world use in robotics, agriculture, surveillance, and manufacturing. Finally, the paper identifies challenges and future directions, including dense-scene limitations, hybrid CNN-Transformer integration, open-vocabulary detection, and edge-aware training approaches.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 6

AutoMat: Enabling Automated Crystal Structure Reconstruction from Microscopy via Agentic Tool Use

Machine learning-based interatomic potentials and force fields depend critically on accurate atomic structures, yet such data are scarce due to the limited availability of experimentally resolved crystals. Although atomic-resolution electron microscopy offers a potential source of structural data, converting these images into simulation-ready formats remains labor-intensive and error-prone, creating a bottleneck for model training and validation. We introduce AutoMat, an end-to-end, agent-assisted pipeline that automatically transforms scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) images into atomic crystal structures and predicts their physical properties. AutoMat combines pattern-adaptive denoising, physics-guided template retrieval, symmetry-aware atomic reconstruction, fast relaxation and property prediction via MatterSim, and coordinated orchestration across all stages. We propose the first dedicated STEM2Mat-Bench for this task and evaluate performance using lattice RMSD, formation energy MAE, and structure-matching success rate. By orchestrating external tool calls, AutoMat enables a text-only LLM to outperform vision-language models in this domain, achieving closed-loop reasoning throughout the pipeline. In large-scale experiments over 450 structure samples, AutoMat substantially outperforms existing multimodal large language models and tools. These results validate both AutoMat and STEM2Mat-Bench, marking a key step toward bridging microscopy and atomistic simulation in materials science.The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/yyt-2378/AutoMat and https://huggingface.co/datasets/yaotianvector/STEM2Mat.

  • 17 authors
·
May 18 2

Bigram Subnetworks: Mapping to Next Tokens in Transformer Language Models

In Transformer language models, activation vectors transform from current token embeddings to next token predictions as they pass through the model. To isolate a minimal form of this transformation, we identify language model subnetworks that make bigram predictions, naive next token predictions based only on the current token. We find that bigram subnetworks can be found in fully trained language models up to 1B parameters, and these subnetworks are critical for model performance even when they consist of less than 0.2% of model parameters. Bigram subnetworks are concentrated in the first Transformer MLP layer, and they overlap significantly with subnetworks trained to optimally prune a given model. Mechanistically, the bigram subnetworks often recreate a pattern from the full models where the first layer induces a sharp change that aligns activations with next token predictions rather than current token representations. Our results demonstrate that bigram subnetworks comprise a minimal subset of parameters that are both necessary and sufficient for basic next token predictions in language models, and they help drive the transformation from current to next token activations in the residual stream. These subnetworks can lay a foundation for studying language model circuits by building up from a minimal circuit rather than the traditional approach of ablating circuits from a full model.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 21

Neurosymbolic AI -- Why, What, and How

Humans interact with the environment using a combination of perception - transforming sensory inputs from their environment into symbols, and cognition - mapping symbols to knowledge about the environment for supporting abstraction, reasoning by analogy, and long-term planning. Human perception-inspired machine perception, in the context of AI, refers to large-scale pattern recognition from raw data using neural networks trained using self-supervised learning objectives such as next-word prediction or object recognition. On the other hand, machine cognition encompasses more complex computations, such as using knowledge of the environment to guide reasoning, analogy, and long-term planning. Humans can also control and explain their cognitive functions. This seems to require the retention of symbolic mappings from perception outputs to knowledge about their environment. For example, humans can follow and explain the guidelines and safety constraints driving their decision-making in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, criminal justice, and autonomous driving. This article introduces the rapidly emerging paradigm of Neurosymbolic AI combines neural networks and knowledge-guided symbolic approaches to create more capable and flexible AI systems. These systems have immense potential to advance both algorithm-level (e.g., abstraction, analogy, reasoning) and application-level (e.g., explainable and safety-constrained decision-making) capabilities of AI systems.

  • 3 authors
·
May 1, 2023

Hyperdimensional Probe: Decoding LLM Representations via Vector Symbolic Architectures

Despite their capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) remain opaque with limited understanding of their internal representations. Current interpretability methods, such as direct logit attribution (DLA) and sparse autoencoders (SAEs), provide restricted insight due to limitations such as the model's output vocabulary or unclear feature names. This work introduces Hyperdimensional Probe, a novel paradigm for decoding information from the LLM vector space. It combines ideas from symbolic representations and neural probing to project the model's residual stream into interpretable concepts via Vector Symbolic Architectures (VSAs). This probe combines the strengths of SAEs and conventional probes while overcoming their key limitations. We validate our decoding paradigm with controlled input-completion tasks, probing the model's final state before next-token prediction on inputs spanning syntactic pattern recognition, key-value associations, and abstract inference. We further assess it in a question-answering setting, examining the state of the model both before and after text generation. Our experiments show that our probe reliably extracts meaningful concepts across varied LLMs, embedding sizes, and input domains, also helping identify LLM failures. Our work advances information decoding in LLM vector space, enabling extracting more informative, interpretable, and structured features from neural representations.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 29 2

Extraction of Medication and Temporal Relation from Clinical Text using Neural Language Models

Clinical texts, represented in electronic medical records (EMRs), contain rich medical information and are essential for disease prediction, personalised information recommendation, clinical decision support, and medication pattern mining and measurement. Relation extractions between medication mentions and temporal information can further help clinicians better understand the patients' treatment history. To evaluate the performances of deep learning (DL) and large language models (LLMs) in medication extraction and temporal relations classification, we carry out an empirical investigation of MedTem project using several advanced learning structures including BiLSTM-CRF and CNN-BiLSTM for a clinical domain named entity recognition (NER), and BERT-CNN for temporal relation extraction (RE), in addition to the exploration of different word embedding techniques. Furthermore, we also designed a set of post-processing roles to generate structured output on medications and the temporal relation. Our experiments show that CNN-BiLSTM slightly wins the BiLSTM-CRF model on the i2b2-2009 clinical NER task yielding 75.67, 77.83, and 78.17 for precision, recall, and F1 scores using Macro Average. BERT-CNN model also produced reasonable evaluation scores 64.48, 67.17, and 65.03 for P/R/F1 using Macro Avg on the temporal relation extraction test set from i2b2-2012 challenges. Code and Tools from MedTem will be hosted at https://github.com/HECTA-UoM/MedTem

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2023

Understanding the Role of Human Intuition on Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Making with Explanations

AI explanations are often mentioned as a way to improve human-AI decision-making, but empirical studies have not found consistent evidence of explanations' effectiveness and, on the contrary, suggest that they can increase overreliance when the AI system is wrong. While many factors may affect reliance on AI support, one important factor is how decision-makers reconcile their own intuition -- beliefs or heuristics, based on prior knowledge, experience, or pattern recognition, used to make judgments -- with the information provided by the AI system to determine when to override AI predictions. We conduct a think-aloud, mixed-methods study with two explanation types (feature- and example-based) for two prediction tasks to explore how decision-makers' intuition affects their use of AI predictions and explanations, and ultimately their choice of when to rely on AI. Our results identify three types of intuition involved in reasoning about AI predictions and explanations: intuition about the task outcome, features, and AI limitations. Building on these, we summarize three observed pathways for decision-makers to apply their own intuition and override AI predictions. We use these pathways to explain why (1) the feature-based explanations we used did not improve participants' decision outcomes and increased their overreliance on AI, and (2) the example-based explanations we used improved decision-makers' performance over feature-based explanations and helped achieve complementary human-AI performance. Overall, our work identifies directions for further development of AI decision-support systems and explanation methods that help decision-makers effectively apply their intuition to achieve appropriate reliance on AI.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17, 2023

Generalized Correctness Models: Learning Calibrated and Model-Agnostic Correctness Predictors from Historical Patterns

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 29 2