| { |
| "schema": "deepmind-completed-utc-period-comparison-v1", |
| "status": "complete_verified", |
| "model": { |
| "key": "deepmind", |
| "label": "Google DeepMind WeatherNext Cyclones Mini (<2024)", |
| "model_checkpoint": "WeatherNextCyclones_Mini_<2024", |
| "software_version": "0.3.0", |
| "software_commit": "89c4b2a77a1c57b328b909c575550fd2e5aadc9c", |
| "trained_through": 2023, |
| "resolution_degrees": 1, |
| "member_count": 1, |
| "member_policy": "One official Mini member, seed 0", |
| "checkpoint_sha256": "a1bb151457077248d70a458b1a7b19deacd2926fbcb46eee4ff2691444e3596e", |
| "method": "Official predictor and initialized-storm tracker; causal ERA5; RTX 3070 CUDA", |
| "status": "complete_verified" |
| }, |
| "single_checkpoint_across_all_periods": true, |
| "cohort": { |
| "storms": 270, |
| "daily_issues": 1473, |
| "sha256": "965184f1e5ab3fcb52e304f39b38583a14f753870aa2295f2d01942a441dcfd6", |
| "leads_hours": [ |
| 6, |
| 12, |
| 18, |
| 24, |
| 30, |
| 36, |
| 42, |
| 48, |
| 54, |
| 60, |
| 66, |
| 72, |
| 78, |
| 84, |
| 90, |
| 96, |
| 102, |
| 108, |
| 114, |
| 120 |
| ] |
| }, |
| "period_definition": { |
| "before_2024": "UTC issue year < 2024", |
| "year_2024": "UTC issue year == 2024", |
| "after_2024": "UTC issue year > 2024 (2025 onward)", |
| "total": "All 1,473 frozen daily starts" |
| }, |
| "periods": { |
| "total": { |
| "daily_issues": 1473, |
| "storms": 270, |
| "daily_issue_percentage": 100.0, |
| "storm_percentage": 100.0, |
| "years": [ |
| 1980, |
| 1981, |
| 1982, |
| 1983, |
| 1984, |
| 1985, |
| 1986, |
| 1987, |
| 1988, |
| 1989, |
| 1990, |
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| 1992, |
| 1993, |
| 1994, |
| 1995, |
| 1996, |
| 1997, |
| 1998, |
| 1999, |
| 2024, |
| 2025, |
| 2026 |
| ], |
| "case_indices": [ |
| 0, |
| 1, |
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| 1136, |
| 1137, |
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| 145, |
| 146, |
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| 150, |
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| 154, |
| 155, |
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| 158, |
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| 160, |
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| 162, |
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| 164, |
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| 167, |
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| 170, |
| 171, |
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| 173, |
| 174, |
| 175, |
| 176, |
| 177, |
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| 179, |
| 180, |
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| 182, |
| 183, |
| 184, |
| 185, |
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| 187, |
| 188, |
| 189, |
| 190, |
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| 192, |
| 193, |
| 194, |
| 195, |
| 196, |
| 197, |
| 198, |
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| 200, |
| 201, |
| 202, |
| 203, |
| 204, |
| 205, |
| 206, |
| 207, |
| 208, |
| 209, |
| 210, |
| 211, |
| 212, |
| 213, |
| 214, |
| 215, |
| 216, |
| 217, |
| 218, |
| 219, |
| 220, |
| 221, |
| 222, |
| 223, |
| 224, |
| 225, |
| 226, |
| 227, |
| 228, |
| 229, |
| 230, |
| 231, |
| 232, |
| 233, |
| 234, |
| 235, |
| 236, |
| 237, |
| 238, |
| 239, |
| 240, |
| 241, |
| 242, |
| 243, |
| 244, |
| 245, |
| 246, |
| 247, |
| 248, |
| 249, |
| 250, |
| 251, |
| 252, |
| 253, |
| 254, |
| 255, |
| 256, |
| 257, |
| 258, |
| 259, |
| 260, |
| 261, |
| 262, |
| 263, |
| 264, |
| 265, |
| 266, |
| 267, |
| 268, |
| 269, |
| 270, |
| 271, |
| 272, |
| 273, |
| 274, |
| 275, |
| 276, |
| 277, |
| 278, |
| 279, |
| 280, |
| 281, |
| 282, |
| 283, |
| 284, |
| 285, |
| 286, |
| 287, |
| 288, |
| 289, |
| 290, |
| 291, |
| 292, |
| 293, |
| 294, |
| 295, |
| 296, |
| 297, |
| 298, |
| 299, |
| 300, |
| 301, |
| 302, |
| 303, |
| 304, |
| 305, |
| 306, |
| 307, |
| 308, |
| 309, |
| 310, |
| 311, |
| 312, |
| 313, |
| 314, |
| 315, |
| 316, |
| 317, |
| 318, |
| 319, |
| 320, |
| 321, |
| 322, |
| 323, |
| 324, |
| 325, |
| 326, |
| 327, |
| 328, |
| 329, |
| 330, |
| 331, |
| 332, |
| 333, |
| 334, |
| 335, |
| 336, |
| 337, |
| 338, |
| 339, |
| 340, |
| 341, |
| 342, |
| 343, |
| 344, |
| 345, |
| 346, |
| 347, |
| 348, |
| 349, |
| 350, |
| 351, |
| 352, |
| 353, |
| 354, |
| 355, |
| 356, |
| 357, |
| 358, |
| 359, |
| 360, |
| 361, |
| 362, |
| 363, |
| 364, |
| 365, |
| 366, |
| 367, |
| 368, |
| 369, |
| 370, |
| 371, |
| 372, |
| 373, |
| 374, |
| 375, |
| 376, |
| 377, |
| 378, |
| 379, |
| 380, |
| 381, |
| 382, |
| 383, |
| 384, |
| 385, |
| 386, |
| 387, |
| 388, |
| 389, |
| 390, |
| 391, |
| 392, |
| 393, |
| 394, |
| 395, |
| 396, |
| 397, |
| 398, |
| 399, |
| 400, |
| 401, |
| 402, |
| 403, |
| 404, |
| 405, |
| 406, |
| 407, |
| 408, |
| 409, |
| 410, |
| 411, |
| 412, |
| 413, |
| 414, |
| 415, |
| 416, |
| 417, |
| 418, |
| 419, |
| 420, |
| 421, |
| 422, |
| 423, |
| 424, |
| 425, |
| 426, |
| 427, |
| 428, |
| 429, |
| 430, |
| 431, |
| 432, |
| 433, |
| 434, |
| 435, |
| 436, |
| 437, |
| 438, |
| 439, |
| 440, |
| 441, |
| 442, |
| 443, |
| 444, |
| 445, |
| 446, |
| 447, |
| 448, |
| 449, |
| 450, |
| 451, |
| 452, |
| 453, |
| 454, |
| 455, |
| 456, |
| 457, |
| 458, |
| 459, |
| 460, |
| 461, |
| 462, |
| 463, |
| 464, |
| 465, |
| 466, |
| 467, |
| 468, |
| 469, |
| 470, |
| 471, |
| 472, |
| 473, |
| 474, |
| 475, |
| 476, |
| 477, |
| 478, |
| 479, |
| 480, |
| 481, |
| 482, |
| 483, |
| 484, |
| 485, |
| 486, |
| 487, |
| 488, |
| 489, |
| 490, |
| 491, |
| 492, |
| 493, |
| 494, |
| 495, |
| 496, |
| 497, |
| 498, |
| 499, |
| 500, |
| 501, |
| 502, |
| 503, |
| 504, |
| 505, |
| 506, |
| 507, |
| 508, |
| 509, |
| 510, |
| 511, |
| 512, |
| 513, |
| 514, |
| 515, |
| 516, |
| 517, |
| 518, |
| 519, |
| 520, |
| 521, |
| 522, |
| 523, |
| 524, |
| 525, |
| 526, |
| 527, |
| 528, |
| 529, |
| 530, |
| 531, |
| 532, |
| 533, |
| 534, |
| 535, |
| 536, |
| 537, |
| 538, |
| 539, |
| 540, |
| 541, |
| 542, |
| 543, |
| 544, |
| 545, |
| 546, |
| 547, |
| 548, |
| 549, |
| 550, |
| 551, |
| 552, |
| 553, |
| 554, |
| 555, |
| 556, |
| 557, |
| 558, |
| 559, |
| 560, |
| 561, |
| 562, |
| 563, |
| 564, |
| 565, |
| 566, |
| 567, |
| 568, |
| 569, |
| 570, |
| 571, |
| 572, |
| 573, |
| 574, |
| 575, |
| 576, |
| 577, |
| 578, |
| 579, |
| 580, |
| 581, |
| 582, |
| 583, |
| 584, |
| 585, |
| 586, |
| 587, |
| 588, |
| 589, |
| 590, |
| 591, |
| 592, |
| 593, |
| 594, |
| 595, |
| 596, |
| 597, |
| 598, |
| 599, |
| 600, |
| 601, |
| 602, |
| 603, |
| 604, |
| 605, |
| 606, |
| 607, |
| 608, |
| 609, |
| 610, |
| 611, |
| 612, |
| 613, |
| 614, |
| 615, |
| 616, |
| 617, |
| 618, |
| 619, |
| 620, |
| 621, |
| 622, |
| 623, |
| 624, |
| 625, |
| 626, |
| 627, |
| 628, |
| 629, |
| 630, |
| 631, |
| 632, |
| 633, |
| 634, |
| 635, |
| 636, |
| 637, |
| 638, |
| 639, |
| 640, |
| 641, |
| 642, |
| 643, |
| 644, |
| 645, |
| 646, |
| 647, |
| 648, |
| 649, |
| 650, |
| 651, |
| 652, |
| 653, |
| 654, |
| 655, |
| 656, |
| 657, |
| 658, |
| 659, |
| 660, |
| 661, |
| 662, |
| 663, |
| 664, |
| 665, |
| 666, |
| 667, |
| 668, |
| 669, |
| 670, |
| 671, |
| 672, |
| 673, |
| 674, |
| 675, |
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| "years": [ |
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| "Historical years overlap Mini fitting years; do not call the combined cohort an unused temporal test.", |
| "2024 is already after the checkpoint training cutoff, but is excluded from strict >2024.", |
| "All-time pressure has smaller valid coverage than all-time track; counts are metric-specific.", |
| "Different causal input pipelines and 50-member 1.2 versus one-member Mini; not an equal-compute comparison.", |
| "Post-2024 dates alone do not certify an untouched holdout across earlier development experiments." |
| ] |
| } |
|
|
