repro_bundle/analyze.py

"""Tier-1 re-analysis of cached results (no GPU, no refitting): reads results/*.jsonl and
produces the breakdowns the paper needs. Safe to run alongside / after the grid.

    python analyze.py shift        # per shift-type predictor ranking (paraphrase/domain/length)
    python analyze.py estimator    # cross-estimator: do logreg-based predictors predict mass-mean rotation?
    python analyze.py fidelity     # label-fidelity (NLI flip-rate) summary per dataset
    python analyze.py all
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import sys

import numpy as np

import metrics
from config import DATASETS
from baselines import PREDICTORS
from run_pipeline import _rot_mag, _mean_ood_drop, _read_results, _rank_predictors


def _pred_index(preds):
    return {(p["model"], p["dataset"], p["seed"]): p["predictors"] for p in preds}


def shift_breakdown():
    evals = _read_results("eval")
    pidx = _pred_index(_read_results("predictors"))
    print("\n########## SHIFT-TYPE BREAKDOWN (rotation target per shift) ##########")
    for shift in ["paraphrase", "domain", "length"]:
        rows = []
        for e in evals:
            if e.get("probe") != "logreg":
                continue
            key = (e["model"], e["dataset"], e["seed"])
            if key not in pidx:
                continue
            mag = _rot_mag(e.get("dists", {}).get(shift, {}).get("rotation"))
            if mag != mag:
                continue
            rows.append({"concept": DATASETS[e["dataset"]].concept, "rot": mag, **pidx[key]})
        if len(rows) < 8:
            print(f"\n[{shift}] only {len(rows)} configs — skipped")
            continue
        _rank_predictors(rows, "rot", f"rotation under {shift.upper()} (n={len(rows)})")


def estimator_cross():
    """Do logreg-derived predictors also forecast the MASS-MEAN probe's rotation? (S2 external validity)."""
    evals = _read_results("eval")
    pidx = _pred_index(_read_results("predictors"))
    print("\n########## ESTIMATOR EXTERNAL VALIDITY (predict mass-mean rotation) ##########")
    rows = []
    for e in evals:
        if e.get("probe") != "mass_mean":
            continue
        key = (e["model"], e["dataset"], e["seed"])
        if key not in pidx:
            continue
        rots = [_rot_mag(v.get("rotation")) for d, v in e.get("dists", {}).items() if d != "iid"]
        rots = [r for r in rots if r == r]
        if not rots:
            continue
        rows.append({"concept": DATASETS[e["dataset"]].concept, "rot": float(np.mean(rots)), **pidx[key]})
    if len(rows) < 8:
        print(f"only {len(rows)} configs — skipped")
        return
    _rank_predictors(rows, "rot", f"mass-mean rotation (n={len(rows)})")


def size_ladder():
    """Tier 3: does predictability of rotation / excess change with model size?
    (C4 / inverse-scaling check). Per model, correlate key predictors vs paraphrase rotation
    and vs excess rotation across its (dataset x seed) configs.
    """
    from config import MODELS
    evals = _read_results("eval")
    pidx = _pred_index(_read_results("predictors"))
    keypreds = ["raptor_stability", "augmentation_robustness", "pac"]
    # build per-model rows of (predictors, para_rot, excess)
    by_model = {}
    for e in evals:
        if e.get("probe") != "logreg":
            continue
        key = (e["model"], e["dataset"], e["seed"])
        if key not in pidx:
            continue
        para = _rot_mag(e.get("dists", {}).get("paraphrase", {}).get("rotation"))
        iids = _rot_mag(e.get("iid_split_rotation"))
        if para != para:
            continue
        excess = para - iids if iids == iids else float("nan")
        by_model.setdefault(e["model"], []).append({"para": para, "excess": excess, **pidx[key]})
    print("\n########## SIZE-LADDER: predictability vs model size ##########")
    print(f"{'model':16s}{'params_M':>9s}  | rho(predictor, target) for para-rot / excess")
    for m in sorted(by_model, key=lambda x: MODELS[x].params_m if x in MODELS else 0):
        rows = by_model[m]
        pm = MODELS[m].params_m if m in MODELS else 0
        cells = []
        for tgt in ("para", "excess"):
            y = np.array([r[tgt] for r in rows], dtype=float)
            for kp in keypreds:
                s = np.array([r.get(kp, np.nan) for r in rows], dtype=float)
                ok = ~(np.isnan(s) | np.isnan(y))
                rho = metrics.spearman(s[ok], -y[ok])[0] if ok.sum() >= 6 else float("nan")
                cells.append(f"{kp.split('_')[0][:4]}:{rho:+.2f}")
            cells.append("|")
        print(f"{m:16s}{pm:>9.0f}  | {' '.join(cells)}")
    print("(target order: para-rot [raptor aug pac] | excess [raptor aug pac])")


def _partial_spearman(x, y, z):
    """Partial Spearman of (x,y) controlling for z: rank-transform then residualise on z."""
    from scipy.stats import rankdata
    ok = ~(np.isnan(x) | np.isnan(y) | np.isnan(z))
    x, y, z = x[ok], y[ok], z[ok]
    if len(x) < 8:
        return float("nan"), 0
    rx, ry, rz = rankdata(x), rankdata(y), rankdata(z)
    Z = np.c_[np.ones_like(rz), rz]
    res = lambda a: a - Z @ np.linalg.lstsq(Z, a, rcond=None)[0]
    ex, ey = res(rx), res(ry)
    return float(np.corrcoef(ex, ey)[0, 1]), len(x)


def robust_circularity():
    """Reviewer rebuttal (R2 difference-score artefact, R1 pseudo-replication):
    (a) PARTIAL Spearman of (signal, paraphrase-rotation | placebo) — does a signal predict
        shift-rotation BEYOND the sampling-noise floor, without the naive-minus-placebo subtraction?
    (b) CLUSTER bootstrap (resampling CONCEPTS, not cells) for Δρ[aug−raptor] on excess.
    """
    evals = _read_results("eval")
    pidx = _pred_index(_read_results("predictors"))
    rows = []
    for e in evals:
        if e.get("probe") != "logreg":
            continue
        k = (e["model"], e["dataset"], e["seed"])
        if k not in pidx:
            continue
        para = _rot_mag(e.get("dists", {}).get("paraphrase", {}).get("rotation"))
        plac = _rot_mag(e.get("iid_split_rotation"))
        if para != para or plac != plac:
            continue
        rows.append({"concept": DATASETS[e["dataset"]].concept, "para": para, "plac": plac,
                     "excess": para - plac, **pidx[k]})
    print("\n########## ROBUST CIRCULARITY CHECK (reviewer R1/R2 rebuttal) ##########")
    print("PARTIAL Spearman rho(signal, paraphrase-rot | placebo)  [the artefact-free version]")
    print(f"{'predictor':26s}{'partial-rho':>12s}{'naive-rho':>11s}{'excess-rho':>11s}")
    para = np.array([r["para"] for r in rows]); plac = np.array([r["plac"] for r in rows])
    exc = np.array([r["excess"] for r in rows])
    for name in PREDICTORS:
        s = np.array([r.get(name, np.nan) for r in rows], float)
        pr, n = _partial_spearman(s, para, plac)
        nr = metrics.spearman(s[~np.isnan(s)], -para[~np.isnan(s)])[0] if (~np.isnan(s)).sum() >= 8 else float("nan")
        er = metrics.spearman(s[~np.isnan(s)], -exc[~np.isnan(s)])[0] if (~np.isnan(s)).sum() >= 8 else float("nan")
        print(f"{name:26s}{-pr:>12.3f}{nr:>11.3f}{er:>11.3f}")
    print("(partial-rho>0 => signal predicts shift-rotation beyond the sampling floor, non-circular,"
          " no difference-score subtraction)")

    # cluster bootstrap by concept for Delta rho[aug - raptor] on excess
    concepts = np.array([r["concept"] for r in rows])
    uc = list(np.unique(concepts))
    sa = np.array([r.get("augmentation_robustness", np.nan) for r in rows], float)
    sb = np.array([r.get("raptor_stability", np.nan) for r in rows], float)
    rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
    def drho(mask):
        m = mask & ~(np.isnan(sa) | np.isnan(sb) | np.isnan(exc))
        if m.sum() < 8:
            return np.nan
        return metrics.spearman(sa[m], -exc[m])[0] - metrics.spearman(sb[m], -exc[m])[0]
    base = drho(np.ones(len(rows), bool))
    boots = []
    for _ in range(2000):
        pick = rng.choice(uc, len(uc), replace=True)
        mask = np.isin(concepts, pick)
        # build resampled arrays by concept blocks
        idx = np.concatenate([np.where(concepts == c)[0] for c in pick])
        m = ~(np.isnan(sa[idx]) | np.isnan(sb[idx]) | np.isnan(exc[idx]))
        if m.sum() >= 8:
            boots.append(metrics.spearman(sa[idx][m], -exc[idx][m])[0] - metrics.spearman(sb[idx][m], -exc[idx][m])[0])
    lo, hi = np.percentile(boots, [2.5, 97.5])
    sig = "SIGNIFICANT" if lo > 0 else "n.s."
    print(f"\nCLUSTER bootstrap (resample {len(uc)} CONCEPTS): Δρ[aug−raptor] on EXCESS = {base:+.3f}"
          f"  95%CI [{lo:+.3f},{hi:+.3f}] -> {sig}")
    print("(this is the pseudo-replication-corrected version of the headline paired test)")


def fidelity_summary():
    audit = _read_results("audit")
    print("\n########## LABEL-FIDELITY (NLI flip-rate of paraphrase shift) ##########")
    by_ds = {}
    for a in audit:
        by_ds.setdefault(a["dataset"], []).append(a.get("flip_rate", float("nan")))
    print(f"{'dataset':18s}{'mean flip-rate':>16s}{'pass-rate':>12s}")
    for ds in sorted(by_ds):
        fr = float(np.nanmean(by_ds[ds]))
        print(f"{ds:18s}{fr:>16.3f}{1 - fr:>12.3f}")
    allfr = [v for vs in by_ds.values() for v in vs if v == v]
    if allfr:
        print(f"{'OVERALL':18s}{np.mean(allfr):>16.3f}{1 - np.mean(allfr):>12.3f}")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    mode = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "all"
    if mode in ("shift", "all"):
        shift_breakdown()
    if mode in ("estimator", "all"):
        estimator_cross()
    if mode in ("size", "all"):
        size_ladder()
    if mode in ("robust", "all"):
        robust_circularity()
    if mode in ("fidelity", "all"):
        fidelity_summary()